One Man’s Opinion: Does The June Jobs Report Show That A Rate Hike Is Unlikely This Year?

Ulli Market Review Contact

ManThe latest non-farm payroll report showed the US economy added 223,000 jobs in June, well below expectations for a 245,000 increase, and when the net 60,000 downward revision for the previous two months are factored in, the moot question that needs to be asked is whether the markets were actually overzealous about labor market conditions, said Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel Financial.

Furthermore, the drop in the unemployment rate, which could partially be attributed to a record low labor force participation rate that was last seen in the seventies, fully reflects the fact that nearly half-a-million Americans dropped out of the labor force.

Also, the average hourly earnings show a non-existent wage pressure. So, frankly speaking, no component of the employment report suggests growing confidence in the labor market strength, something the Fed has been clear they want to see in order to justify a near-term rate increase, she observed.

Read More

New ETFs On The Block: Elkhorn S&P 500 Capital Expenditures Portfolio (CAPX)

Ulli Equity ETFs Contact

Bull-BearWhen it comes to innovation, there’s hardly any segment in the financial sector that can beat the exchange-traded funds industry. With more than 1,700 products and about $2.1 trillion in assets under management, it all points to an industry that flourishes on novelty and is more dynamic than every before.

It’s no surprise then that a new product with a brand-new investment strategy hit the blocks recently, for offering another way to dice the S&P 500 index with an aim to give tailor made exposure in large-cap stocks.

The newly launched Elkhorn S&P 500 Capital Expenditures Portfolio (CAPX) is the first ETF from Ben Fulton-founded Elkhorn Investments LLC. Fulton is an industry veteran who headed Invesco Powershares’ Global ETF division and founded Elkhorn in 2013. Fulton, credited with turning Invesco into a leader of alternative indexing, has built a team he worked with for decades in the industry, indicating a deep expertise in the so-called “smart beta” category.

Read More

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For July 3, 2015

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

————————————————————-

THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-07022015/

————————————————————

Market Commentary

A SECOND STRAIGHT LOSING WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

It was a volatile Holiday-shortened week with the major indexes succumbing to the bearish forces again. As I reported the past four days, the culprit was Greece and its unresolved debt problems along with its referendum scheduled for this coming Sunday. Any surprise outcome in regards to its eurozone membership will surely affect the markets, but very likely more so in Europe than here is the U.S.

On the domestic side, we saw today’s mixed jobs report which, along with weekly unemployment claims came in weaker than expected. While the unemployment rate slipped to 5.3% 223,000 new jobs were added but, unfortunately, the estimated numbers for April and May were sharply reduced and more people left the labor force. It was a report that certainly did not give much ammunition to the Fed in terms of justifying an interest rate increase in the near future.

9 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight slipped as the bears maintained the upper hand this week. Only the Dividend ETF (DVY) managed to squeeze out a gain of 0.33% during yesterday’s low volume pre-Holiday session.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/02/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 2, 2015

TOC021915

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/22/2014

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +1.06% keeping us in the market with our established positions.

Read More

Market Commentary Delayed

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

I will post today’s market commentary as part of the weekending ETF Tracker, which will be published and emailed tomorrow.

Happy 4th of July!

Ulli…

Data Overshadows Greece

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

To heck with Greece is what Wall Street muttered today and returned the focus back on domestic economic data. The major indexes managed to build on yesterday’s rebound and closed up higher despite a mid-day pullback.

The Greek saga continues to play in the background with its upcoming referendum on Sunday to let the people decide on the austerity demands of the creditors. New bailout deals are hitting the news wires every so often but are usually denied within a short time frame. I think next week will bring some clarity as to the future of Greece’s alliances.

This morning’s ADP payroll report was better than expected, which bodes well for tomorrow’s payroll numbers. That provided some of the firepower supporting today’s move higher.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight joined the rebound and closed up. Leading the charge was the Low Volatility S&P (SPLV) with a gain of 1.46%. The laggard was the MC Value (IWS), which added 0.49%.

Read More