Due to a variety of business commitments this afternoon, I will not be able to write today’s market commentary.
Regular posting will resume tomorrow.
Ulli…
ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 04/17/2015
Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.
The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 309 (last week 311) are hovering in bullish territory.
The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.
These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 53 ETFs (last week 54) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.
The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 492 (last week 544) above the line and 328 below it out of the 820 that I follow.
Take a look:
2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report
In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.
If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.
One Man’s Opinion: Is The Chinese Economy Experiencing A Fundamental Shift?
China’s old economic growth model is indeed running out of steam, and the Chinese government is in the middle of transitioning to a new model which is not just based on low-cost, low-wage, labor-intensive, manufacturing for export and a whole bunch of state investment, said Kevin Rudd, President of Asia Society Institute and former Prime Minister of Australia.
The transition to a new growth model is based on personal consumption and an explosion in services industry, plus a much more vibrant private-entrepreneurial sector. China is in the midst of restructuring a growth model that has been around for 35 years and flipping the old model into a change within a span of two years is difficult though there’s no denying the fact the economy is in transition.
China is likely to grow by 6 percent because that’s the minimum growth rate they would require to sustain general stability in the economy and to continue to generate sufficient employment and living standards. Therefore, if 6 percent was threatened as the fundamental basement, the government would intervene; and they have the capacity to do so, he noted.
04-17-2015
ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For April 17, 2015
ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet
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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:
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Market Commentary
STOCKS LOWER ON THE WEEK
1. Moving the Markets
Stocks declined this week, closing down about 0.5% as measured by the S&P 500. The markets bounced around in a narrow range for the most part as investors got their first look at Q1 earnings, but ultimately finished with a pullback Friday on international headlines out of Greece and China and mixed U.S. data.
In tech today, Apple’s (AAPL) stock is down $1.53 cents, or 1.2% this Friday. Some investors and analysts are still holding out hope for Apple’s $1 trillion dream, but many remain pessimistic at present. The current 18-month price target on Apple is $142.42 a share, which equates to an expected market value of $829.6 billion. Still a long ways to go before hitting the Trillion dollar mark!
In auto news today, Ford (F) confirmed that it is investing $2.5 billion in new engine and transmission plants in the Mexican states of Chihuahua and Guanajuato. The investment, which Ford says will created 3,800 direct jobs, has been widely expected this week and it follows an announcement by Toyota (TM) on Wednesday that it is spending $1 billion in Mexico on a new factory to build redesigned 2020 Corolla compacts starting in 2019.
As earnings season continues in the coming few weeks, more volatility could return to the markets, underscoring the importance of having an exit strategy, should things go south too much and into bearish territory. First-quarter earnings season will likely set much of the tone for the week ahead. In addition, existing home sales will be reported on Wednesday. New home sales are expected Thursday, and durable goods orders are expected on Friday.
All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight pulled back today as downward momentum was too much to overcome. Leading the charge into the red was XLY with -1.48% while DVY held up best with a loss of -0.83%.
2. ETFs in the Spotlight
In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.
It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.
Here are the 10 candidates:
The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.
For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.
Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:
Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) slipped and ended the week as follows:
Domestic TTI: +2.88% (last Friday +3.31%)—Buy signal effective 10/22/2014
International TTI: +4.30% (last Friday +4.95%)—Buy signal effective 2/13/2015
Have a nice weekend.
Ulli…
Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.
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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK
All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:
http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php
Reader Norman:
Q: Ulli: Since XLV has been a top performing index fund for many years, why not consider CURE?
A: Norman: The time to use a 3X leveraged ETF like CURE would have been at the beginning of the cycle and not this far into it. However, if your risk tolerance allows such leverage, then by all means go for it. I prefer the slow and steady approach, because it is more suited to trend tracking as it minimizes potential whip-saw signals.
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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:
https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/
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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:
New ETFs On The Block: SPDR Doubleline Total Return Tactical ETF (TOTL)
Jeffry Gundlach, the famed bond-fund manager of DoubleLine Capital that oversees $64 billion in assets, recently got involved with State Street Global Advisors (SSgA) to launch its first exchange-traded fund in the country.
The newly launched SPDR DoubleLine Total Return Tactical ETF (TOTL) is an actively-managed fund that will face the challenges in a slowly evolving fixed-income landscape and will directly compete with PIMCO Total Return Active Exchange Traded Fund, run by “Bond King” Bill Gross of Pacific Investments previously.
To be sure, Gundlach is possibly the most respected bond fund manager in the market today. Prior to founding the Los Angeles-based DoubleLine Capital, Gundlach managed the $12 billion TCW Total Return Bond Fund until 2009 before a messy split-up and has since become one of the most widely followed bond strategists in the business.
ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For April 17, 2015
ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet
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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:
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Market Commentary
STOCKS LOWER ON THE WEEK
1. Moving the Markets
Stocks declined this week, closing down about 0.5% as measured by the S&P 500. The markets bounced around in a narrow range for the most part as investors got their first look at Q1 earnings, but ultimately finished with a pullback Friday on international headlines out of Greece and China and mixed U.S. data.
In tech today, Apple’s (AAPL) stock is down $1.53 cents, or 1.2% this Friday. Some investors and analysts are still holding out hope for Apple’s $1 trillion dream, but many remain pessimistic at present. The current 18-month price target on Apple is $142.42 a share, which equates to an expected market value of $829.6 billion. Still a long ways to go before hitting the Trillion dollar mark!
In auto news today, Ford (F) confirmed that it is investing $2.5 billion in new engine and transmission plants in the Mexican states of Chihuahua and Guanajuato. The investment, which Ford says will created 3,800 direct jobs, has been widely expected this week and it follows an announcement by Toyota (TM) on Wednesday that it is spending $1 billion in Mexico on a new factory to build redesigned 2020 Corolla compacts starting in 2019.
As earnings season continues in the coming few weeks, more volatility could return to the markets, underscoring the importance of having an exit strategy, should things go south too much and into bearish territory. First-quarter earnings season will likely set much of the tone for the week ahead. In addition, existing home sales will be reported on Wednesday. New home sales are expected Thursday, and durable goods orders are expected on Friday.
All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight pulled back today as downward momentum was too much to overcome. Leading the charge into the red was XLY with -1.48% while DVY held up best with a loss of -0.83%.