S&P 500 Rises To New Record Before Retreating

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Equities looked a little tired after the solid run of the past 1-1/2 weeks and ended only slightly changed. The S&P managed to temporarily climb above its old record high (on very meager volume) but was not able to hold the gain and ended up 1 point above the unchanged line.

So far earnings have been better than expected, which has helped the recent run along with good M&A activity. Greece’s problems are allegedly resolved with a final pact to be on the table anytime now, so that pressure is off the markets for the time being. Of course, as I have stated before, the Greek crisis has merely been postponed and can rear its ugly head anytime; that is if you don’t view things through rose-colored glasses.

Despite the recent rally, we’re still range bound and are nearing the upper end. Data showed that the S&P hasn’t closed in 2015 more than 3.5% above or below where it started the year. I am not sure what value this fact has for investors, but some claim that this bull has another 2 years of life left. Well, be that as it may, we’ll continue to follow the trends and let our sell stops be the guide in determining whether this bull is still alive or not.

7 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight climbed higher as the indexes ended up only slightly change. Leading the group was Healthcare (XLV) with +0.32%; on the downside, the Mid-Cap Value ETF (IWS) surrendered -0.42%.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 07/17/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 212 (last week 179) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 38 ETFs (last week 32) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 379 (last week 418) above the line and 441 below it out of the 820 that I follow.

Take a look:

  1. ETF Master Cutline Report
  2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report
  3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Do Downside Risks To The Economy Still Exist?

Ulli Market Review Contact

ManThe latest retail sales reading that showed June sales (excluding automobiles) slipped 0.1 percent doesn’t suggest the US economy has turned a corner and the economy would be able to sustain a hike in interest rates, said Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Booth School of Business.

While global events such as the turmoil in Greece and the meltdown of Chinese stock market are a cause for concern, the domestic economy has not lived up to investors’ expectations either and failed to meet the Fed’s own projection.

The economy is likely to follow the same path witnessed in the past few years and the Federal Reserve will keep pushing back the rate lift-off because the data is not strong enough, he observed.

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New ETFs On The Block: WisdomTree Western Asset Unconstrained Bond Fund (UBND)

Ulli Bond ETFs Contact

InvestingUnconstrained funds, as the name implies, break this shackle and provide the flexibility that may be required to operate across different market conditions. A world that is characterized by diverging central bank policies, uncontrollable government debt from Greece to Puerto Rico and massive stock market volatility, unconstrained strategy may appeal to investors that are looking to adjust portfolios quickly amid a fast changing global environment.

WisdomTree, the third largest US provider of actively-managed exchange-traded funds, collaborated with California based Western Asset Management Company to launch the industry’s first unconstrained bond ETF recently.

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For July 17, 2015

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/07/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-07162015/

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Market Commentary

INDEXES RALLY WITH THE NASDAQ MAKING A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

One look at the 5-day chart tells the story of the past week. The bulls had their way with the Nasdaq making a new high supported by Google’s better-than-estimated earnings.

The S&P 500 added 2.4% but lagged a little as its energy share component declined. Still, the index managed to rally within 5 points of its all-time high. Earnings so far have provided some ammunition for this rebound, which also received an assist by the agreement of Greece and its creditors.

For the S&P it was its biggest weekly gain in 4 months, even though most of the rally was based on nothing but hope that the Greek resolution will hold and that the free-fall in Chinese equities has been contained.

Domestically, we heard that Fed chair Yellen is still talking about a rate increase this year; new-home construction climbed in June, the cost of living increased and consumer confidence declined.

Today, only 2 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight eked out a gain with the leader being the Global 100 (IOO), which added 0.45%. On the downside, the Dividend ETF (DVY) ruled by giving back -0.83%.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/16/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, July 16, 2015

TOC021915

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/22/2014

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +1.83% keeping us in the market with our established positions.

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