ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 06/12/2015

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 410 ETFs, of which currently 260 (last week 247) are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 97 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 43 ETFs (last week 41) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 533 (last week 513) above the line and 287 below it out of the 820 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

One Man’s Opinion: Does The Federal Reserve Want Longer-Term Interest Rates To Rise?

Ulli Market Review Contact

ManCentral banks in Europe and Japan have committed quantitative easing worth $1 trillion each while the People’s Bank of China has started with its own easing measures off late. When the money printing stops, liquidity would dry up, further exacerbating an already deteriorating global liquidity scenario, said Bill Gross, portfolio manager of Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund.

It’s natural to assume that central bankers wouldn’t stop the money supply if they knew markets would be hit by crises due to high volatility, but unfortunately central bankers don’t know exactly the way home. While global markets have benefited to the extent of trillions of dollars of liquidity over the past few years, investors need to wonder what happens when they don’t, he noted.

The current liquidity pumping by central banks and the subsequent behavior of markets can be metaphorically compared to a helicopter (central banks) – car (financial markets) chase in slow motion where the car never runs out of gas. Asked how long the current scenario is likely to play on, because many investors have been waiting for an end to easy monetary policy for a couple of years now thus missing out good opportunities, Gross said that’s the bane of portfolio managers.

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New ETFs On The Block: US Global Jets ETF (JETS)

Ulli Airline ETF Contact

Bull-BearUS Global Investors Inc, the Texas-based investment advisor to US Global ETFs, recently entered a niche where two previous players had earlier ventured and failed. The recently launched US Global Jets ETF (JETS), which also happens to be the firm’s first exchange-traded product, is designed to track the broad airline industry and follows the relatively new but increasingly popular so-called “smart-beta” investment strategy.

The US airline industry made a smart recovery since crude oil prices started to decline last year. To be sure, between 2005 and 2008, more than half of US carriers operated under Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. But things started to improve on cost rationalization, enhanced cargo demand and a pick-up in the domestic passenger numbers as the US economy continued to heal after the economic crisis of 2009.

Data available from the NYSE Arca Airline Index show stock prices of airlines as a group more than tripled since 2012. In fact, in December last year airline stocks hit the highest intraday level since February 2001, according to financial news agency Bloomberg.

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06-12-2015

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For June 12, 2015

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/06/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-06112015/

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Market Commentary

POOR FINISH TO A MEDIOCRE WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended lower Friday as investors digested a double dose of bad European news—the U.K. getting slapped with a “negative” outlook and Greece’s stalled bailout talks. Greece’s ASE index tanked 5.9% on news that the IMF had left talks in Brussels because a lack of progress. That came just a day after the ASE got an 8% rocket boost in the other direction—when good feelings predominated over debt discussions. The country faces a June 30 deadline for a major debt payment.

Major indexes were mixed on the week, with energy leading decliners and financials leading advancing sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 50 points to end the week at 17,899, up 0.3%.

It was a great day for Wingstop (WING) today during their first day of trading. Shares gained nearly 60% to close at $30.42 a share, up from $11.42. The company’s IPO consisted of 5.8 million shares.

Looking to next week, Wednesday brings what likely will be the most watched event of the week, when the Federal Open Market Committee announces its interest rate decision from its June meeting. Other events of note include industrial production on Monday, housing starts on Tuesday, and both CPI and leading economic indicators indexes on Thursday.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight slipped as the bears got the upper hand for the day. Healthcare (XLV) gave back 1.23%, while the Financials (IYF) resisted the sell off better by surrendering only 0.37%.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:

MaxDD

The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTD

Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) retreated with the major indexes but remain bullish. Here’s how we ended this week:

Domestic TTI: +1.59% (last Friday +1.70%)—Buy signal effective 10/22/2014

International TTI: +3.33% (last Friday +3.21%)—Buy signal effective 2/13/2015

Have a nice weekend.

Ulli…

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

Reader Bob:

Q: Ulli: I am in the process of rebalancing/creating a portfolio & I am hesitant to allocate 40% or so (I am 64) to bond funds with the likelihood of an interest rate increase coming possibly sometime in 2015. I am thinking it may be prudent to put that 40% (or so) I would allocate to bonds in cash & wait & see what happens in the coming months.

My questions are (1) would you recommend buying a general bond fund (BND) now, or, if not, (2) would you recommend a bond fund focusing on high-yield corporate bonds (VWEHX or ETF equivalent) or intermediate bonds (VFICX or ETF equivalent), or keep the money in cash?

Alternatively, I have also been thinking about simply adopting the Vanguard 4-core portfolio (w/VTI [39%]; VXUS [24%]; BND [27%]; and BNDX [10%], but hesitate to do so because of the bond funds.

Guess I am confused regarding why not sit and wait in cash until the dust settles, while knowing trying to time the market is oftentimes a fool’s game.

I always greatly appreciate your thoughts and wisdom surrounding these complex issues. Hope to hear from you.

Best always to you & yours.

A: Bob: At this time, I personally would not touch any bonds at all. If you look around the world and see the erratic behavior of yields, crushing bond prices in the process, it’s best to stand aside from that asset class for the time being. Cash would be the better option, at least to me, rather than some of the funds you mentioned.

I would stick with whatever portion you have invested in equities subject to my recommended sell stop discipline. Let others take chances with the bond market. There will be a time again where they make more sense than right now. Again, my advice is always the same: If you are hesitant at all, don’t do it, just because some joker thinks the 60/40 allocation scheme is suitable for anyone at anytime.

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For June 12, 2015

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/06/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-06112015/

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Market Commentary

POOR FINISH TO A MEDIOCRE WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Stocks ended lower Friday as investors digested a double dose of bad European news—the U.K. getting slapped with a “negative” outlook and Greece’s stalled bailout talks. Greece’s ASE index tanked 5.9% on news that the IMF had left talks in Brussels because a lack of progress. That came just a day after the ASE got an 8% rocket boost in the other direction—when good feelings predominated over debt discussions. The country faces a June 30 deadline for a major debt payment.

Major indexes were mixed on the week, with energy leading decliners and financials leading advancing sectors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 50 points to end the week at 17,899, up 0.3%.

It was a great day for Wingstop (WING) today during their first day of trading. Shares gained nearly 60% to close at $30.42 a share, up from $11.42. The company’s IPO consisted of 5.8 million shares.

Looking to next week, Wednesday brings what likely will be the most watched event of the week, when the Federal Open Market Committee announces its interest rate decision from its June meeting. Other events of note include industrial production on Monday, housing starts on Tuesday, and both CPI and leading economic indicators indexes on Thursday.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight slipped as the bears got the upper hand for the day. Healthcare (XLV) gave back 1.23%, while the Financials (IYF) resisted the sell off better by surrendering only 0.37%.

Read More

Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 06/11/2015

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, June 11, 2015

TOC021915

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/22/2014

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI), broke through its long-term trend line generating a “Sell” for this arena effective 10/14/2014, which was followed by a violent break back above the line on 10/22/14 generating a new “Buy.” It was a classic whipsaw signal, and you can read more on my blog as to the events as they were unfolding.

As of today, our TTI (green line in above chart) is positioned above its long term trend line (red) by +2.04% keeping us in the market with our established positions.

Read More