Cooler CPI Ignites Broad Rally As Rate-Cut Bets Firm

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks ripped higher right out of the gate after a cooler CPI print eased worries that tariffs would juice inflation and spoil the party.

Headline CPI came in at 2.7% year over year vs. 2.8% expected, and core was 3.1% vs. 3.0%—not perfect, but “good enough” for a relief rally. Rate-cut odds for next month ticked up, and traders are now leaning toward multiple cuts into year-end.

Tariff headlines are still buzzing, even with a 90-day pause on higher China levies, but the market basically shrugged.

A big short squeeze helped, with the Mag 7 and the rest of the S&P 500 actually moving together for once.

The dollar dumped on the CPI surprise, gold weirdly went nowhere, bond yields whipsawed (down on the print, then back toward flat), and Bitcoin inched higher without breaking out.

So, with inflation cooling just enough to calm nerves, is this the start of the next leg up—or do tariffs, valuations, and late-summer chop still have a say?

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Stocks Tread Water Ahead Of Big Inflation Reports

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

U.S. stocks barely budged today, with the major indexes hovering near record territory as traders gear up for an eventful week of inflation reports.

After the Nasdaq hit new highs and the S&P 500 flirted with another milestone last week, investors are in a holding pattern—breathing a little easier thanks to the bounce-back from the previous week’s jobs-related selloff.

A growing chorus believes the Fed might pivot to more aggressive rate cuts as the year goes on, fueling some optimism.

But beneath the surface, there’s plenty of handwringing about stretched valuations, a weakening economic outlook, lingering tariff drama, and the usual August market doldrums. Honestly, a touch of sideways action here wouldn’t be the worst thing.

All eyes are locked on the upcoming CPI and PPI numbers, since hotter-than-expected inflation could really shake up the Fed’s plans—and the CPI report will be the one to watch for big policy clues.

For now, the market finished up a tame, directionless session with a modest dip into the red, while the Mag7 stocks swung harder than most.

Bond yields barely moved, spot gold slipped after Trump clarified there’ll be no tariffs on the metal, and the dollar perked up but remains mired in a bear stretch.

Bitcoin had a brief spurt above $122,000 overnight before settling back toward $120,000 as the session wrapped up.

With everyone playing the waiting game ahead of these key inflation numbers—the question is are we on the verge of a breakout, or should we buckle up for more choppy trading ahead?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/08/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (231 vs. 257 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 8, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

NASDAQ LEADS SYNCHRONIZED RALLY AS GOLD FUTURES HIT NEW HIGHS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks kicked off Friday in sync, with all the major indexes climbing together and eyeing another winning week—thanks, in large part, to the Nasdaq’s strong run.

Gold futures, already on a roll this week as traders bet on a possible Fed rate cut, blasted to record highs following a Financial Times report about a possible levy on imported gold bars.

That news also juiced gold mining stocks, sending the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) to a 52-week high, even as the spot price of gold barely budged during regular trading hours.

Overnight, President Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs kicked in, with some of the steepest rates hitting countries like Syria (41%), Laos, and Myanmar (40%).

While the immediate impact of tariffs seems to be less turbulent, traders are still trying to figure out how ongoing trade policies could shake up corporate plans—and what it’ll mean for consumers down the line.

Meanwhile, Apple helped put some extra shine on the “Mag7” tech giants and semiconductor stocks this week since the administration exempted big names from new tariffs. The Mag7 basket surged over 5% for the week, outpacing the rest of the S&P 500 by a wide margin. The Nasdaq notched its best weekly performance since June.

Elsewhere, gold futures racked up gains in five of the past six sessions and hit fresh records, with the premium over spot prices also hitting an all-time high.

Bitcoin bounced back toward its own record highs but is still hemmed in on the charts. The dollar kept sinking even as bond yields pushed higher.

With tech leading the charge again, can this rally keep rolling, or will next week’s run of key economic reports—like CPI, PPI, and Retail Sales—throw a wrench into the works?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/07/2025

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 7, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +3.52% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Markets Whipsaw: Big Tech Leads Early Gains, Gold And Bitcoin Rally Late

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets kicked off Thursday in rally mode, powered by tech stocks, after President Trump rolled out new chip tariffs that carve out big exemptions for companies building in the U.S.

Trump’s late-Wednesday announcement called for a 100% tariff on imported chips, but major players like Nvidia and AMD got a boost, since domestic investment gets a pass—Nvidia popped nearly 2%, AMD soared 5%, and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 2%.

Apple joined the tech parade, adding 2% after announcing another $100 billion of spending on U.S. companies and suppliers, on top of its previous $500 billion pledge.

Despite “reciprocal” tariffs officially kicking in, investors seemed content early on, as fresh economic data (like lower-than-expected jobless claims) suggested the economy’s holding up just fine—even after last week’s disappointing July jobs numbers.

The good vibes didn’t last: Midday, the mood flipped, dragging the Dow and S&P 500 into the red by the close, while the Nasdaq bucked the trend and finished higher. Some traders chalked it up to classic “pumping and dumping,” with semiconductors and mega cap stocks both getting whipsawed.

Elsewhere, a rough 30-year Treasury auction sent bond yields higher, the dollar clawed its way back from yesterday’s lows, and gold hit a two-week high, offering relief for precious metal investors.

Bitcoin was also on the rebound, rallying above $117,000 amid word from the White House that 401ks and private investors will soon get easier access to crypto.

With today’s choppy action and headlines swirling, are the market’s building energy for a breakout, or are we stuck in this sideways grind a little longer?

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