Stocks Rebound As Bitcoin Bounces And Dollar Drops Again

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 started the day on a high note, as traders sifted through a new round of earnings after Wall Street’s rough patch yesterday.

Apple was the big story, jumping 3% after news broke that it’s boosting its investment in U.S. manufacturing by another $100 billion, bringing its total stateside spending to a whopping $600 billion over the next four years.

There were other bright spots, too—McDonald’s rose 2% after serving up strong second-quarter numbers and notching its fastest same-store sales growth in nearly two years.

But it wasn’t all sunshine: Snap’s stock plummeted 20% after a minor revenue miss, and Advanced Micro Devices took a 5% hit after falling shy of earnings estimates.

By the closing bell, the Nasdaq came out on top, outperforming the other major indexes, while Small Caps ended in the red. That meant the Mag 7 stocks easily eclipsed the rest of the S&P 500 for today’s session.

The rest of the market was a bit of a mixed bag: bond yields went sideways, rate-cut odds edged higher for the rest of the year, and the dollar took another hit.

Gold couldn’t catch a break and slipped just a bit. Meanwhile, Bitcoin bounced nicely back above $115,000, clawing back more than it lost yesterday—while crude oil slid to a two-month low.

ZeroHedge pointed out that the Nasdaq 100’s performance this year is eerily like its 2020 run—so the big question is: Will history repeat itself with a sharp comeback, or are we headed for a different kind of finish this time?

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Gold Gains, Bitcoin Stumbles: Inflation And Tariffs Hit Sentiment

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks slipped across the board on Tuesday as traders reacted to some surprisingly weak economic data and fresh tariff talk from President Trump.

Earnings painted a mixed picture—Palantir jumped 8% after hitting a billion dollars in revenue for the first time, but Caterpillar stumbled on an earnings miss.

The big drag on the market came from the ISM Services index, which showed flat growth in July along with signs of higher inflation and shrinking employment. Since services make up about 70% of the U.S. economy, that hit a nerve—any slowdown here could spell trouble down the road.

Adding to the cautious mood, Trump announced upcoming tariffs on chips and pharmaceuticals, saying he wants more of both made in the U.S., with specifics promised “within a week or so.”

That did nothing to calm investors, especially as tech stocks lagged and an early short squeeze fizzled out. Small Caps managed to end modestly in the green, but the Magnificent Seven led the market lower. Meanwhile, bond yields offered no help, finishing the day mixed.

With inflation jitters creeping in, gold ticked higher, the dollar didn’t budge much, and Bitcoin had a rough day before bouncing back to around $113,000.

ZeroHedge noted that Bitcoin’s run of outperforming gold seems to have stalled. Could it be time for precious metals to shine again?

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Gold, Stocks Bounce As Bears Take A Breather After Volatile Week

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets bounced back in style this morning, with all the major indexes recovering a big chunk of Friday’s losses that were sparked by worries about the economy and those new tariffs from the Trump administration.

After a rough end to last week—when weak jobs data, hot PCE inflation, and the final round of mixed earnings all weighed on investor mood—Monday brought a relief rally.

Friday’s slump started with a disappointing jobs report and heavy downward revisions for prior months. That was followed by President Trump firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and signing an executive order that pushed “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of countries up to 10–41%.

With little fresh economic news on the calendar this week, traders are keeping close tabs on trade negotiations with China following a meeting between US and Chinese officials in Sweden.

Seasonally, August tends to be rocky—historically the worst month for the Dow and the second worst for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq—but some optimistic traders are hoping this time will buck the trend.

Heavy shorted stocks snapped back sharply today, rebounding right alongside the major indexes.

Lower bond yields helped keep the dollar in check, which gave gold more room to run—crossing above its 50-day moving average. After a choppy weekend, Bitcoin found its footing and bounced back toward $115,000.

So, with the calendar working against the bulls but today’s rally showing signs of life, will August stick to its usual script—or could this time really be different?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/01/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (266 vs. 231 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 1, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

GOLD SHINES AMID MARKET ROUT; NASDAQ ENDURES ROUGHEST WEEK IN MONTHS

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks felt the heat on Friday as August trading kicked off with a double dose of bad news—a soft jobs report and President Trump’s new tariff hikes.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by just 73,000 last month, falling well short of the 100,000 jobs economists were expecting. To make matters worse, job growth for May and June was revised down sharply, signaling that the labor market’s been weaker for a while now.

Financial stocks took the brunt of it, with banks like JPMorgan Chase tumbling about 4% and Bank of America and Wells Fargo down more than 3%—all on fears that a slowing economy could squash loan growth.

The grim data spiked odds that the Fed might cut rates sooner to give the economy a boost, with traders now pricing in a 66% chance of a rate cut by September.

Meanwhile, Trump’s updated tariffs—ranging anywhere from 10% to 41% on dozens of trading partners—hit overnight, stoking new trade war worries and adding to market jitters.

By the end of the first week of August, all the major indexes were in the red, especially Small Caps, with the Nasdaq holding up the best (though still suffering its biggest weekly loss in over two months).

Trend-wise, the most shorted stocks have been down for seven straight days, global stock markets posted a sixth day of losses, bond yields collapsed, and the dollar broke its six-day winning streak with its worst session in two months.

The only real bright spot was gold, which surged higher and locked in its best day in two months as nervous investors went searching for safety. Bitcoin had no such luck, slumping to its lowest level in three weeks.

So, here’s the real question: Will this weak jobs report turn out to be that “bad news is good news” twist for stocks—by pressuring the Fed into an earlier rate cut—or is there more pain ahead for the markets?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/31/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, July 31, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +4.13% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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