ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For November 20, 2015

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2015/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11192015/

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Market Commentary

S&P 500 GAINS +3.26% AFTER LOSING -3.63% THE PRIOR WEEK

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

For sure it’s a nutty market. Of course, MSM headlines only boast about the S&P posting its largest weekly gain in a nearly a year; it’s long forgotten that it lost -3.63% the prior week, its worst in some 4 years with the net gain being a negative 10 points.

Helping this week’s recovery were some strong earnings and comments from the usual array of Fed officials opining that “the path of interest rate increases is likely to be gradual,” supporting hopes that if an increase occurs in December, the markets won’t be startled.

Of course, just because the Fed is talking about an increase, it’s far from certain that it will actually happen. My viewpoint is that economic data sure don’t show the strength required to support a raise in rates. Nevertheless, the markets are nearing the upper range of the sideways pattern, but we’ll have to wait and see if a clear breakout occurs in order for us to commit to equities again. Please see section 3 for important details.

8 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight ended higher on the day as Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) took the lead with +1.20%. On the downside, Consumer Staples (XLP) gave back -0.71%.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/19/2015

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, November 19, 2015

TOC 111915

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: SELL— since 11/04/2015

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in above chart) recently crawled above its long term trend line (red) and finally generated a new “Buy” signal effective 11/3/15. The market subsequently dropped, and we exited again on 11/13/15. As of today, the TTI has inched back above its trend line by +0.26%, which is not enough of a breakout to generate a new “Buy” signal. Stay tuned for daily blog updates.

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Stocks Remain In Flux; Keurig & Smucker Gain

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Of course, the potential interest rate hike remains on everyone’s mind as we head into 2016. However, whether or not the rate hike will take place still remains TBD but, more importantly, how will the markets react? Given the global economic landscape, I don’t think a hike is a given at this time, so we’ll have to linger in uncertainty for a while longer and watch our Domestic TTI for clues as to continued upward momentum and a potential new Buy signal.

In the meantime, we can focus on other aspects of the market. In tech today, mobile payments processing company Square (SQ) commenced their IPO and opened for trading at $11.20 a share, which was about $2 higher than $9 price that was expected throughout Wall Street.

In the food biz today, Keurig-Green Mountain (GMCR) gained after raising its quarterly dividend and putting forth some well-needed guidance heading into 2016. Though, the positive news overshadowed their weak Q4 numbers that showed sales slid 13% as demand weakened for its coffee potts and makers.

We also heard today that JM Smucker (SJM) gained after beating sales and earnings estimates. The food company reported a $40 increase in sales, which was mostly driven by its $3.2bil acquisition of Big Heart Pet Brands earlier this year.

Our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight were mixed with 6 of them closing up, led by the Global 100 (IOO) with +0.33%; 4 of them ended up lower led by Healthcare (XLV), which got clobbered -1.68%.

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Markets Hold Strong Despite Paris Event; Is A New Domestic “BUY” In The Making?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Financial markets have held up well so far this week after the attacks in Paris Friday that sparked global concern about the economic impact of terrorism. Stocks moved higher Wednesday after the release of the Fed minutes of October, as the Dow logged a third straight day of gains and the S&P 500 moved back into the black for the year.

According to minutes of its October 27-28 meeting, the Federal Reserve policymakers agreed that the economy and labor market “could well” be strong enough to withstand a hike in interest rates in December. The officials said global troubles had eased and a delay could increase market uncertainty and undermine confidence in the economy.

The Fed also has expressed concern about persistently low inflation and said it must be reasonably confident inflation will return to the Fed’s 2% goal in the medium-term. That’s all it took and equities went into rally mode. Of course, we know that the Fed and not economic data determine market direction, as general macro data are showing anything but strength. Some analysts seem to think that the Fed needs to hike in order to save face; after all, you can only cry “wolf” so many times before you lose credibility.

Be that as it may, the question for us is whether the reboud of the last 3 days will provide enough momentum in order to break us out of the trading range in which we’ve been stuck for several weeks. With the Domestic TTI now having ventured again above its trend line by a fraction, after spending only 5 days below it, I will want to see more staying power accompanied by a stronger piercing of the line before issuing a new “Buy.” Stay tuned for more details.

All of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight jumped higher with the leader being Healthcare (XLV) with a gain of +1.95%, while the Dividend ETF (DVY) lagged a little but gained +1.34%.

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Indexes Drag On Oil And Terror Fears

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

An early follow through rally from yesterday ran into resistance despite strong earnings from Wal-Mart and Home Depot. Falling oil prices and the evacuation of a soccer stadium in Germany, rekindling more terror fears, proved to be too much of a negative.

Other data offered a mixed view of the U.S. economy with consumer prices increasing (after declining for 2 straight months) and industrial production falling. Of course, every upcoming data point is dissected to see if it might affect the Fed’s decision on interest rates in December.

3 of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight eked out a gain today led by Healthcare (XLV) with +0.43%. On the loser’s side, the Dividend ETF (DVY) took dubious honors by dropping -0.91%.

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Markets Bounce Back After Shaky Week

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

I received a number of emails from readers over the weekend being glad to be out of the market especially in view of the sudden tragic events in France. The general theme was that the indexes would take another hit, but that was not to be. While the futures pointed to a lower opening, momentum turned positive, and the markets never looked back despite dismal economic data (Japan in the 5th recession in 5 years and poor US manufacturing data).

All major U.S. indexes gained more than 1% to start the week, recovering from a volatile week prior. Oil prices were a prominent mover today and led the energy sector higher as U.S. crude rose about 2.45% to close at $41.74 a barrel.

As you would expect from any ground shaking terrorist attack, the airline industry took a blow today following the news from Paris last Friday. Shares of American Airlines (AAL), Delta Air Lines (DAL), and United Continental (UAL) had already started to give up their October gains last week, and they all fell again by 2%-3% today. In Europe, Air France and British Airways owner IAG lost 5% and 3% respectively. French hotel group Accor also lost 5%.

The big question: Is today’s rebound simply a dead cat bounce or the beginning of another trend reversal? We won’t know and will remain on the sidelines until we get confirmation that a new uptrend is indeed in place. The chart patterns, the volatility as of recent and the non-directional meandering appear to point towards one thing: A final blow-off in this bull market. As I was pondering this possibility, I came across this piece titled Stock market enters final bull market stage.

In a reversal from last week, all of our 10 ETFs in the Spotlight followed the indexes higher led by Consumer Staples (XLP) with +1.71%, while Consumer Discretionaries (XLY) lagged with +1.21%.

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