NASDAQ Ekes Out A New High

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

U.S. stocks rose Tuesday and moved back into record territory as the Nasdaq set a new all-time high by gaining a meager +0.30%.  The rebound comes as quiet summer trading drags on and investors look ahead to a key speech from Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen on Friday.

Investors are largely in wait-and-see mode ahead of Yellen’s speech on Friday in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, which allegedly will clarify the U.S. Central Bank’s thinking on whether it plans to hike interest rates for the first time this year at its September meeting or continue to hold off.

In the earnings world, it was all about Best Buy (BBY) today. Investors piled into the stock after the big-box chain soared past expectations on earnings and profit, potentially scrambling the conventional wisdom on the outlook for electronics sales. The gains came primarily in consumer electronics and appliances, which posted same-store sales increases of 4% and 8.2%, respectively.

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Mediocre Monday Meddling

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

Q2 earnings season has all but wrapped up, now that retailer Walmart (WMT) has reported its results. The theme remains that investors are somewhat pleased the dip in profit growth by companies in the S&P 500 was less than expected. Companies within the index reported 2.1% lower adjusted profit per share, which was somewhat better than the 5% expected profit drop. A side note of something to consider, however, is that it’s the fourth consecutive drop in quarterly earnings growth for the S&P.

In Fed news, Janet Yellen will speak on Friday about the central bank’s long-term policy framework. Before then, reports on home sales, orders of long-lasting goods and the U.S. trade balance will hold the spotlight in this week’s economic news.

In energy news today, we heard a report that Asia’s biggest economy (China) is well on its way to becoming the world’s second-largest producer of natural gas.  China’s oil and gas majors are suffering not just from low oil prices but also from mature fields, many of them nearing depletion. However, its energy needs are not declining, and the country is still the world’s top energy consumer, with consumption 30% higher than that of the U.S.

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One Man’s Opinion: Secret Federal Reserve Minutes Leaked

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OneMan'sOpinionBy Simon Black

Yesterday (last Wednesday) the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its July meeting a few weeks ago in which they decided to NOT raise interest rates.

These minutes are the official archive of the meeting, providing details about the presentations, debates, and discussions that took place.

They contain very formal sounding language, referring to their near-zero interest rates as “accommodation” in the same way that my high school health teacher preferred to use the more clinical term “copulation” instead of “sex”.

As an example, the most recent Fed minutes state:

“members agreed to indicate that they would continue to closely monitor global economic and financial developments.”

What in the world does that even mean?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 08/19/2016

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below please find the latest High Volume ETF Cutline report, which shows how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs are positioned.

This report covers the HV ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 366 High Volume ETFs ETFs, defined as those with an average daily volume >$5 million, of which currently 329 (last week 325) are hovering in bullish territory. The yellow line separates those ETFs that are positioned above their trend line from those that have dropped below it.

Take a look:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report  

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

If you missed the original post about the Cutline approach, you can read it here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For August 19, 2016

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet

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https://theetfbully.com/2016/08/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etf-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-08182016/

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Market Commentary

MARKETS SLIPPING WHILE OIL IS GUSHING HIGHER

Fri pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the Markets

U.S. markets closed lower today to finish the week as traders appeared slightly anxious about the possibility of an earlier-than-expected Federal Reserve interest-rate hike. It seems that comments from senior Fed officials in recent days suggest a bias toward raising benchmark U.S. interest rates. This has subsequently pushed investors to re-examine minutes from the U.S. central bank’s most recent meeting in July and think more stringently about a potential rate hike before year end 2016.

In the world of tech, there were a few headlines today noting that Google’s stock celebrated its 12th anniversary of being on the public exchange.  And, while the stock has gained about 1,780% since its IPO back in 2004 (at $42 a share), there are a few other tech stocks that have performed better during that same time frame that you might not be aware of.

These companies include Priceline (PCLN), Netflix (NFLX), Salesforce.com (CRM), Amazon.com (AMZN) and its Google’s arch rival Apple (AAPL). Analysts remain bullish on the future of the stock though, and anticipating that the stock could be worth $935 a share in 18 months. That would put it 17% higher than the Friday’s closing price of $799.65 per share.

U.S. Crude Oil has been ‘on fire’ this week rising towards once again towards the $50 per barrel mark. While the ‘black gold’ hasn’t passed the $50 per barrel mark recently, it remains a tipping point that could move markets back in the opposite direction.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 08/18/2016

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, August 18, 2016

TOC081816

Methodology/Use of this StatSheet:

  1. From the universe of over 1,800 ETFs, I have selected only those with a trading volume of over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so that liquidity and a small bid/ask spread are assured.
  2. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Buy or Sell decisions for Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2), are made based on the respective TTI and its position either above or below its long-term M/A (Moving Average). A crossing of the trend line from below accompanied by some staying power above constitutes a “Buy” signal. Conversely, a clear break below the line constitutes a “Sell” signal. Additionally, I use a 7.5% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories to control downside risk.

  1. All other investment arenas do not have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of the individual ETF relative to its own respective trend line (%M/A). That’s why those signals are referred to as a “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF crosses its own trendline to the upside, a “Buy” signal is generated. Since these areas tend to be more volatile, I recommend a wider trailing sell stop of 7.5% -10% depending on your risk tolerance.

If you are unfamiliar with some of the terminology, please see Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY — since 4/4/2016

TTI

Our main directional indicator, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart) remains above its long-term trend line (red) by +3.18% after having generated a new Domestic Buy signal effective 4/4/2016 as posted.

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