[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

The markets started with a bang after the delayed November CPI dropped softer than anyone expected—headline at 2.7% year-over-year and core at 2.6% (way below the 3.1%/3.0% guesses).

No October data to compare because of the shutdown, so economists aren’t calling it a slam-dunk trend yet, but traders didn’t care—they hit the buy button hard.

Micron was the hero, rocketing 9% on a beat-and-raise quarter and strong guidance, which helped re-light the AI fire after recent wobbles. That, plus lighter-than-expected jobless claims, gave everything a nice lift.

By the close, the major indexes held onto solid gains, with the Mag 7 flipping the script to outperform the other 493 S&P names.

Bond yields eased back, the dollar did a pump-and-dump but ended flat, while the shiny stuff took a breather: gold chopped around and closed basically unchanged, silver gave up its $66 level and pulled back from recent highs.

Bitcoin? Classic rollercoaster—spiked to $89K, then sank to $84K by the bell.

Tomorrow we’ve got the biggest options expiration in history coming up—$7.1 trillion notional, including $5T in SPX alone.

Can we expect some wild fireworks that could shake things up, or will the market just quietly pave the way for the classic year-end melt-up?

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

The markets started the day on shaky footing, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipping while the Dow briefly held modest gains as traders sifted through the long-delayed jobs data and tried to gauge the real state of the economy.

After weeks of trading on hope, yesterday’s report made it clearer that growth has been cooling for a while, and attention is already shifting to Thursday’s November CPI release to see whether inflation is easing enough to justify more support next year. 

The real hit came from the AI story line. Oracle slid another 5% to its lowest level since mid‑June as fresh “data center drama” reignited worries about the pace and profitability of big AI investments, and AI stocks more broadly have now dropped about 9% over the past week.

That knocked the wind out of the Nasdaq, which was hit hard and lost its 50‑day moving average, while the Dow held up relatively better; as a group, the Mag 7 names lagged the other 493 S&P components by a wide margin, underscoring how leadership has been wobbling. 

Crypto traded like a roller coaster, with Bitcoin spiking from around 86k up toward 90k before sliding back toward 85k by the close.

Precious metals, on the other hand, continued to act as a stabilizing force: silver ripped higher again, gaining roughly 4.4% as it pushed toward 67 before falling just short, and gold added about 1% but bumped into resistance near 4,350.

Bonds chopped around intraday, but yields remain lower on the week, offering at least a bit of support to risk assets in the background. 

With only seven trading days left in the year, AI heavyweights stumbling, metals leading, and the macro picture looking softer but not outright broken, the big question is this one:

Can seasonality finally step in and give equities the year‑end tailwind they’re looking for—or if 2025 is destined to limp into the finish line instead of sprinting.

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

1. Moving the market

Stocks slipped early on as traders chewed over the long-delayed November jobs report and what it might mean for the Fed’s next move.

The tape felt choppy rather than panicky, with markets trying to balance better‑than‑expected headlines against some softer details under the surface. 

November payrolls rose by 64,000 versus expectations for 45,000, but that strength was offset by a hefty 105,000 downward revision to October, an uptick in unemployment to 4.6%, and cooler wage growth.

Put together with weak headline retail sales (even if the core/control group held up) and ugly PMI readings on both the manufacturing and services sides, the broader macro picture landed as “not great, but maybe dovish enough” rather than truly reassuring. 

All of that helped keep hopes alive for another Fed rate cut early next year, at least in theory, giving equities some support into year‑end even if today’s price action didn’t fully show it.

The Citi macro surprise index rolled over alongside the major indexes, while U.S.–Europe trade tensions over digital taxes on big U.S. tech firms added another layer of uncertainty to the mix. 

Even so, the Nasdaq managed to sneak out a small gain, helped by sliding bond yields and continued pressure on the dollar.

Gold held its ground around the 4,300 level after a mild bounce, silver slipped back below 64, and Bitcoin staged a partial recovery from yesterday’s hit, poking up toward 88,000 intraday before failing to close above it. 

So, with data sending mixed signals, yields drifting lower, and markets still debating how many cuts are left in the Fed’s playbook—and when they’ll arrive—the question now is whether this is just a digestion phase before a year‑end push higher, or the start of a more cautious tone as 2026 comes into view.