Dow Hits Record As S&P Recovers, Tech Lags 

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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The S&P 500 and Nasdaq stumbled in early trading, weighed down by weak tech performance after the recent surge.

By the close, the S&P 500 clawed back to green, while the Dow powered to a fresh record high.

The Nasdaq wasn’t so lucky, finishing with a moderate loss as big names in artificial intelligence—like Nvidia, CoreWeave, Micron Technology, Oracle, and Palantir Technologies—sold off amid growing worries about peaked valuations.

Pressure increased after SoftBank sold its entire Nvidia stake for $5.8 billion, spooking traders who were already on edge about lofty prices in the sector.

ADP’s latest report added to the cautious mood, revealing private sector job creation has slowed sharply.

On the bright side, the Senate passed a bill to end the shutdown, removing a key risk for markets and helping drive a midday turnaround in some asset classes.

The dollar slipped on weak labor data, gold managed to stay above $4,100 after an early dip, and silver plowed higher above $51. Bitcoin spiked but gave up much of the move before the close.

Does this latest split between tech and blue chips hint at a bigger shift, or will participation broaden to lift all sectors as year-end approaches?

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Metals Surge As Shutdown Hopes Spark Broad Gains

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks powered higher right at the open as news of Senate progress on a deal to end the historic U.S. government shutdown fired up traders and renewed risk-taking across the board.

Leaders of the artificial intelligence bull market, including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Microsoft, were quick to catch a bid after being dinged last week by fears about frothy valuations in the AI space.

Microsoft finally broke out of its longest losing streak since 2011, adding to the tech-fueled rebound as optimism mounted that a funding bill could soon reopen the government and reverse some mass federal layoffs.

Senate approval of a critical procedural measure brought a resolution within reach, with more key votes lined up before the deal can become law.

While market breadth still left something to be desired, the Mag 7 basket once again outperformed the rest of the S&P 500 thanks to strength in AI names.

On the macro front, bond yields finished below their early highs as expectations for a December rate cut slipped, and the dollar continued to unwind its recent surge.

Metals markets stole the show, with gold soaring 2.7% to top $4,100, silver rallying 4.3% and breaking through $50, and copper adding over 3%. Bitcoin rebounded to reach $106,000 after some recent volatility.

Could this government shutdown breakthrough be the catalyst for a more lasting market rally, or will some new curveball knock the bulls off balance next?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 11/07/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (275 vs. 278 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For November 7, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

BITCOIN BOUNCES, GOLD RECOVERS—BUT STOCKS STAY IN THE RED

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

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Stocks stumbled out of the gate this week, with tech once again leading the decline. Big names in artificial intelligence took a hit, dragging the major indexes into the red.

Nvidia dropped another 3% Thursday, bringing its weekly slide to 10%. Oracle matched that loss, while Palantir sank 14% and Broadcom slipped 6%. Even Microsoft, Tesla, and AMD joined the selloff, weighing heavily on the broader market.

Adding fuel to the fire, October job cut data came in hot — marking the worst layoff numbers for that month in over 20 years. That makes 2025 the roughest year for job losses since the 2009 recession.

All three major indexes are down for the week, with the Nasdaq taking the biggest hit. Despite a late-week bounce, this was still its worst performance since the post–Liberation Day drop in April. Investors are growing wary of sky-high tech valuations and the increasingly narrow leadership in the market.

Still, there’s a glimmer of hope. A year-end rally could be on the table if the government shutdown wraps up and tariff tensions ease. Nvidia’s earnings report in two weeks might reignite the AI story — and if the Fed throws in a December rate cut, we could end 2025 on a high note.

Meanwhile, bond yields dipped, the dollar paused, and bitcoin flirted with the $100k level before bouncing back above $103k. Gold, after two rough weeks, clawed its way back above $4,000.

So, with the week ending in the red, the big question is: Will next week’s economic data bring a turnaround—or are we in for more sideways action as the year winds down?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/06/2025

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, November 6, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +3.95% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Tech Tumbles Again: AI Valuations And Job Cuts Rattle Markets

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks took a hit today, with the sell-off gaining steam as the session wore on. The usual suspects in the AI space were under pressure again, as investors grew increasingly uneasy about sky-high valuations.

Adding fuel to the fire were fresh concerns about the job market. October saw a wave of layoff announcements—over 153,000 job cuts, to be exact. That’s a whopping 183% jump from September and the worst October for layoffs in 22 years. In fact, 2025 is shaping up to be the roughest year for job losses since the 2009 recession.

AI stocks stayed in the spotlight. Qualcomm dropped 2%, despite beating earnings expectations. AMD, which had a strong showing yesterday, gave back 5%. Palantir and Oracle slipped 2% and 3%, respectively. Even Nvidia and Meta, two of the “Magnificent Seven,” couldn’t escape the downturn.

Meanwhile, traders kept one eye on Washington, where the Supreme Court is reviewing the legality of tariffs imposed during the Trump administration. Based on the justices’ comments, many expect a ruling that could roll back those trade taxes—potentially a bullish catalyst for stocks down the line.

But for now, sentiment stayed sour. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack made it clear that inflation is still public enemy number one. She said the Fed should keep tightening the screws to bring prices down, even if it means more pain in the labor market.

Tech stocks bore the brunt of the selling, with the Mag 7 once again lagging the rest of the S&P 500. Bond yields dipped, the dollar softened, and gold got a brief lift—but couldn’t hold the $4,000 mark. Bitcoin also slid with tech, though it found support around $101,000.

Some analysts think markets could bounce once the government reopens, but the odds of that happening by November 15 have dropped below 50%.

So, here’s the big question: Is this just a temporary shakeout, or are we looking at the start of a broader risk-off shift?

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