Bond Yields Dip, Gold Shines As Dollar Sinks

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The major indexes got off to a running start this morning, with the Nasdaq leading the charge. Hopes for some good news on the trade front and more upbeat earnings reports fueled the mood, and both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq scored fresh all-time intraday highs.

Big tech was in the spotlight again—Alphabet, Meta, and Apple kicked things off on a positive note, setting the vibe and dragging the rest of the market along for the ride. All eyes are now on Apple and Tesla as the first two Mag 7 names set to report earnings; if they can top expectations, it could add a serious boost to growth in the next quarter.

Trade talks were a hot topic. Commerce Secretary Lutnik stuck to his guns on that August 1 deadline for countries to start paying tariffs, but also left the door open for future negotiations, saying countries can still reach out after the date passes.

But it wasn’t all sunshine. The Conference Board’s latest leading indicators stumbled for the sixth time in the past seven months—a bit of a reality check as seasonal trends look set to flip from bullish to bearish, and global trade uncertainty creeps a bit higher.

An afternoon bout of selling took the wind out of the indexes’ sails, wiping away the morning gains and leaving the Dow in the red. But the Mag 7 basket once again outperformed the rest of the S&P names, keeping a bit of spark alive.

It was a busy day elsewhere too: bond yields fell across the board, the dollar slipped back to last week’s lows (helping gold jump above $3,400 with a 1.54% daily gain), and Bitcoin did the pump-and-dump routine, ending up about where it started.

ZeroHedge pointed out an interesting parallel between this year’s S&P 500 and last year’s chart action. With seasonal trends lining up, is the market about to repeat history—or are we in for some surprises as summer heats up?

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ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 07/18/2025

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (235 vs. 256 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For July 18, 2025

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

CRYPTO GOES MAINSTREAM AS BITCOIN HOLDS STEADY IN QUIET SESSION

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The S&P 500 fired out of the gate, hitting a fresh record right after the opening bell—only to lose steam almost immediately. The major indexes slipped into the red not long after and spent the rest of the day glued to their flat lines, wrapping up in a pretty bland fashion.

On the bright side, some of the big tech names—Nvidia, Tesla, Alphabet, and Amazon—logged early gains. Over in earnings land, both Pepsi and United Airlines kept their rallies going after dropping numbers that topped Wall Street’s expectations.

Right now, plenty of traders are in “risk on” mode, with the hope that a Fed rate cut might be around the corner. Here’s the twist: historically, strong bull markets actually do better without rate cuts. In fact, the very first rate cut can sometimes signal a top, not a new rally. Still, with inflation cooling off and GDP forecasts holding up, maybe this time will buck the trend.

After a sluggish start to July, so-called “soft” data (like sentiment and expectations) is catching up to the more concrete “hard” numbers, fueling optimism. The Citi Economic Surprise Index even points to things picking up, even though today’s action on Wall Street was mostly sideways.

For the week, the Mag7 stocks easily outpaced the rest of the S&P 500, helped along by a relentless squeeze in the most shorted names. Bond yields were all over the place, the dollar ended stronger, and gold managed a move higher.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, took a nap after Monday’s surge and ended the week unchanged.

It’s worth pointing out that even the trading community is catching on: crypto isn’t just a fringe asset anymore—it’s quickly becoming a staple for mainstream investors.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 07/17/2025

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF Data updated through Thursday, July 17, 2025

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +4.73% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our new holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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Strong Data Lifts Equities, But All Eyes Remain On The Fed

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The stock market kicked off today with a dose of optimism, backed by fresh economic data and a string of positive earnings announcements.

Traders were clearly in a good mood, as about 88% of the 50 S&P 500 companies that reported this week managed to top expectations, giving confidence another solid boost.

On the economic front, jobless claims for the week ending July 12 dropped by 7,000 to 221,000—not an earth-shattering move, but it’s the right direction.

Even better, June retail sales jumped 0.6% from May, blowing past the 0.2% forecast. That strong retail report helped push markets higher throughout the day, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both setting new records, and small caps leading the charge.

The action wasn’t just about stocks. The most shorted names added extra rocket fuel to the rally, even as bond yields kept to a tight range.

Meanwhile, after yesterday’s dip, the dollar rebounded and clawed back some of its losses. Gold had a wild ride overnight—dropping hard but then finding its feet around the $3,330 mark before ending the day lower.

Bitcoin wasn’t left out of the drama either, taking a tumble before bouncing back to about $120,000.

It’s clear that equities had a strong session, but in the background, everyone’s wondering the same thing: With the economy overall showing mixed signals, when will Fed Chair Powell finally budge and cut rates?

That’s the big unknown keeping traders on their toes.

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Calm Before The Squeeze: Markets Juggle Earnings, Inflation, And Powell Rumors

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

The markets started the day in neutral, with the major indexes barely budging as traders waited on earnings from the big banks and tried to make sense of the latest inflation data.

Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley all beat expectations, but their stock reactions were all over the place—some up, some down.

Meanwhile, June’s Producer Price Index (PPI), which gives us a sneak peek at inflation trends, came in flat. That’s a surprise, especially since many were bracing for a bump thanks to tariffs. So far, no sign of “tariff-flation.”

On the economic front, Industrial Production came in hotter than expected—up 0.3% month-over-month, which adds up to a 0.73% gain year-over-year. That’s a solid beat.

Despite the good news, markets didn’t seem too impressed. Investors were more focused on whether the Fed might have room to cut rates later this year.

The day wasn’t without drama. Stocks briefly tanked after reports from CBS and the New York Times claimed Trump was planning to fire Fed Chair Powell—rumors that were quickly denied.

That sparked a wild ride in the markets, with a big short squeeze helping stocks bounce back. Bond yields, rate-cut bets, the dollar, and gold all swung wildly too.

Gold managed to finish higher, while Bitcoin quietly kept climbing, seemingly tracking global liquidity trends.

So, with all this noise, are the markets gearing up for a breakout—or just catching their breath?

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