The S&P 500 and Dow kicked things off by flashing fresh all-time intraday highs—building on their hot start to 2026—but the early excitement faded. Both slipped into the red by the close as the rally ran out of gas.
Crude oil took a hit after President Trump mentioned interim Venezuelan authorities could hand over up to 50 million barrels to the U.S., sparking worries about extra supply flooding the market.
Maduro’s arrest is big geopolitically, but it doesn’t change oil flows right now—so markets mostly shrugged. That said, if things get messy with cooperation, elections, or unrest, it could stir up fresh chaos and weigh on stocks.
Economic data was mixed: service-sector activity hit its best level of the year (strong orders and hiring), but job openings plunged in November, with hiring and layoffs both cooling.
In the end, equities finished lower, with only the Nasdaq squeezing out a tiny gain. Bond yields eased, gold and silver dipped but bounced off session lows, and copper plus Bitcoin took a breather too.
With even the metals and crypto joining stocks on the downside after their monster runs, does this feel like a normal, healthy pullback to reset before Friday’s big jobs report… or a little caution flag worth watching ahead of potential swings?
The Dow kicked things off strong, building on yesterday’s record close after the Venezuela news (U.S. capture of Maduro and Trump pushing U.S. oil companies to invest big).
Early gains held pretty well, with energy names like Chevron (up ~4%) leading the charge on hopes of rebuilding Venezuela’s massive oil infrastructure.
The other majors followed the upbeat mood and kept momentum going, though the Mag 7 (including Nvidia +1% early) started hot but faded late, letting the S&P 493 take the win again. A huge short squeeze kept small caps flying (up big over two days).
Traders are eyeing this week’s data (ADP payrolls Wednesday, full jobs report Friday) for more clues on the Fed’s path.
The standout? Metals kept their 2026 hot streak alive—silver +6.6% to top $80 (new highs), gold aiming for $4,500, platinum and copper strong too. Bond yields higher, dollar modest comeback, Bitcoin around mid-$90K range.
When stocks keep grinding higher but silver’s the one smashing records left and right, does it feel like the ultimate risk-on harmony… or a gentle nudge that our hard-asset tilt is still doing the heavy lifting?
Markets kicked off with a surge right out of the gate—even with the weekend’s big news about the U.S. strike on Venezuela and the capture of Nicolás Maduro.
Crude oil barely budged (no major supply fears), so traders shrugged off the geopolitics and bet it wouldn’t spiral into broader chaos.
Energy stocks stole the early spotlight on hopes they’d cash in on rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure (the country has the world’s largest proven reserves). Chevron ripped 4%+ as the clear frontrunner with its existing operations there, and Exxon Mobil added over 1%.
The vibe felt like classic January money rotation: folks putting cash back to work after year-end tax-loss selling and portfolio tweaks, keeping the risk-on mood alive.
All the majors closed sharply higher, led by the Dow and small caps (huge short squeeze in play—up 8% in two days for some!). The Mag 7 started hot but faded late, letting the S&P 493 take the win for the day.
But the real stars? Metals went nuts again: copper +5%+, silver strong alongside, and gold up a solid 2.9%—all pushing new records. Bond yields eased, Bitcoin found its groove and climbed toward $95K.
I am pondering: With energy popping on Venezuela hopes, metals still on fire, and stocks shaking off the news, does this feel like the risk-on train is back on track for 2026?
You can view the latest version here. (next update 1/8/26)
BITCOIN OVER $90K, METALS FLAT – SHORT SQUEEZE POWERS SMALL CAPS
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
Moving the market
The new year kicked off with a “mixed bag” vibe that pretty much summed up the whole session.
Big-tech names started strong overnight but got hammered as the day wore on, flipping from solid gains to afternoon losses.
The Mag 7 basket took the biggest beating, while the other 493 S&P names (and the broad market) held up way better—breadth was super positive, helped by a massive short squeeze.
The Nasdaq summed up the chaos perfectly: up 1.2% right out of the gate, only to fade all day and close down a hair at -0.03%—its low of the session. Small caps were the real winners, and the S&P 500 scraped together a last-hour push to finish slightly green.
Bond yields and the dollar climbed, Bitcoin had a solid day (broke above $90K and hit near 3-week highs), but metals rode a rollercoaster—rallied overnight, touched highs like gold at$4,400, then gave most of it back to close basically flat.
All told, the classic “Santa Claus rally” (last five days of the year + first two of the new) didn’t really show up this time—U.S. stocks lagged global peers during what’s usually a strong stretch.
Stocks pulled back a bit today, extending a three-session losing streak, but the declines stayed pretty mild.
The S&P 500 still locked in a solid 16.8% gain for the year—its third straight double-digit win. The Nasdaq rode the AI wave to +20.8%, while the Dow lagged a touch at +13% (not as much tech juice).
But the real champions? Precious metals crushed it: silver exploded +143% (its best year since the ’70s), and gold delivered a hefty +64%.
We’ve come a long way from that scary April rout after Trump’s big tariff announcement—the S&P flirted with bear territory (down almost 19% from its February peak and dipping below 5,000). Today’s dip feels like a gentle exhale after that comeback.
The recent softness is a little eyebrow-raising, though, since we’re smack in the middle of the “Santa Claus rally” window (last five days of the year + first two of the next)—usually a nice year-end gift.
Plus, the late pullback in metals came from exchanges hiking margin requirements, forcing leveraged players to liquidate, and creating some forced selling.
Bitcoin had a tougher finish: hit $126K in October but lost steam and closed the year down about 6%—its worst since 2022.
Looking ahead, the macro setup for 2026 still looks supportive—global growth around 2.8%, Fed easing, and big capex spending—but valuations have never been this stretched.
Stocks could grind another double-digit year, but a lot of folks think we might spend time chopping sideways while earnings catch up.
Happy New Year—here’s to a healthy, prosperous 2026!
Continue reading…
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy”Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
It felt like most traders checked out early for New Year’s—bullish energy was basically nowhere to be found.
Pretty much everything drifted lower, with the major indexes posting their fourth straight daily loss. Even the metals sector, which has been our hero all year, got dragged down with the tide.
No big surprise, our TTIs headed south too, giving back a bit of ground. That said, they closed the year still comfortably in positive territory, so our overall bullish outlook stays fully intact heading into 2026.
This is how we closed 12/31/2025:
Domestic TTI: +5.56% above its M/A (prior close +6.47%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +9.57% above its M/A (prior close +10.03%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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The market was in full “where do we go from here?” mode all morning—wandering aimlessly after the S&P 500 just posted back-to-back losses, mostly thanks to tech getting hammered again.
Investors kept trimming some of this year’s big winners, with Nvidia down over 1% and Palantir sliding 2.4%.
By the close, the major indexes all settled modestly lower, with small caps feeling the most pain.
The bright spot (as usual lately) was the metals sector. They bounced right back into the green: silver led with a strong +4.5% rebound, copper posted a solid +3.2%, and gold edged a little higher.
Bond yields basically yawned and went nowhere—the Fed Minutes dropped without much fanfare, and 2026 rate-cut bets stayed pretty steady.
Bitcoin squeezed out a small gain but couldn’t hold its intraday highs around $89K—faded a bit in the afternoon, classic crypto.
Just one more trading day left in 2025 before we flip the calendar and see what fresh surprises the new year brings.
