Markets Grind Higher Despite Rising Tensions And Choppy Rates

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks came under pressure early, dragged down by a sharp jump in oil prices and rising Treasury yields. At the same time, Nvidia’s latest earnings report did little to spark enthusiasm in the tech sector.

Oil moved higher after reports that Iran plans to keep its enriched uranium inside the country, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already complicated situation with the U.S.

That spike in crude quickly spilled over into bond markets, pushing yields higher as traders started bracing for renewed inflation pressure—and the potential hit to economic demand.

Nvidia, meanwhile, actually delivered a strong report, beating both earnings and guidance expectations and even boosting its dividend.

But in this market, simply beating isn’t always enough. With expectations already sky-high, traders leaned into a classic “sell-the-news” reaction, leaving tech without much support.

It turned into another volatile session, with oil, yields, and stocks all moving closely together. But once again, dip buyers stepped in late in the day, helping the major indexes claw their way back into the green.

Small Caps led the rebound, fueled in part by another round of short covering, while the Mag 7 lagged the broader market this time around.

Elsewhere, bond yields ended mixed after swinging throughout the session, and the dollar bounced around before finishing mostly flat.

Gold churned sideways without much direction, while Bitcoin slipped slightly despite a wide $1,500 intraday range.

With yields whipping around and headlines on Iran changing by the hour, markets are stuck in this back-and-forth, headline-driven environment.

The big question now is: if yields start pushing higher again, will stocks be able to keep shaking it off?

Read More

Yields Drop, Stocks Pop, And All Eyes Turn To Nvidia

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks got off to a solid start, with the major indexes moving higher early on, helped in part by a pullback in oil prices.

Traders were also positioning ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report after the close—a key event for the AI trade and overall chip demand. Nvidia shares were already edging higher ahead of the release, showing how much attention this name still commands.

It makes sense, too. One analyst noted that Nvidia alone has driven roughly 20% of the S&P 500’s gains this year—and nearly as much of its projected earnings growth—so whatever comes out of that report has the potential to move the entire market.

That’s especially important given the recent backdrop. Rising bond yields had pressured stocks over the last few sessions, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq logging three straight declines.

The 30‑year yield even briefly topped 5.19%, its highest level in nearly 19 years, as inflation worries and uncertainty around the U.S.–Iran situation kept investors on edge.

But today, the tone flipped. Yields backed off sharply, oil prices dropped, and markets caught a strong bid after comments from Trump suggesting the U.S. may be in the “final stages” of negotiations with Iran.

Small caps led the charge, staging an impressive 2.5% rebound as yesterday’s short squeeze carried over. This time, though, the rally had better participation, with both the Magnificent 7 and the broader S&P 493 moving higher together.

The dollar took a hit on the day, which gave gold a lift back above $4,500. Bitcoin followed the risk-on mood as well, tracking big tech and pushing back above $77,500.

All told, markets seem to be climbing that familiar “wall of worry”—balancing strong economic data, shifting rate expectations, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

But with so many moving parts, the big question remains: how long can this rally hold together before the next curveball hits?

Read More

Rates Spike, Stocks Slide, And Pressure Builds

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks were under pressure right from the open, as a sharp jump in bond yields threw a wrench into the bull market.

Higher rates weighed on the consumer outlook and hit tech stocks particularly hard, taking some of the shine off recent growth momentum.

Traders were also keeping an eye on the oil market after President Trump called off planned strikes on Iran, while continued weakness in chip stocks added to the cautious tone.

The real story, though, was in bonds. The 30‑year Treasury yield pushed above 5.18%, hitting its highest level in nearly 19 years. That move follows last week’s inflation data, which showed price pressures heating up again—partly driven by higher oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions.

Rising rates are starting to ripple through the economy. Higher borrowing costs—from mortgages to credit cards—could slow consumer spending, while also putting pressure on lofty valuations, especially in high‑growth areas like semiconductors.

There’s also growing chatter that the Fed may be behind the curve on inflation, with new Chair Kevin Warsh stepping in later this week. Some analysts are even floating the idea of a rate hike as soon as July—something that would likely add even more pressure to equities and potentially threaten the current bull run.

By the close, higher yields had drained most of the bullish energy out of the market. Stocks finished lower, while the dollar caught a strong bid—pushing above its 200‑day moving average for the first time in over six weeks.

Gold felt the double hit from rising yields and a stronger dollar, bouncing around the $4,500 level before slipping slightly below it. Bitcoin had a choppy session of its own but ultimately finished about where it started.

As for geopolitics, markets seem a bit less reactive to the usual headline swings. While tensions with Iran remain unresolved, traders are starting to take some of the rhetoric in stride, especially with little real progress on negotiations.

At the end of the day, it all keeps circling back to rates—so the big question is: how much higher can yields go before something in the market finally breaks?

Read More

Tech Stumbles While Oil And Yields Take Center Stage

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks pulled back early after last week’s record-setting run, as traders kept a close eye on rising oil prices, bond yields, and the latest developments out of the Middle East.

Oil continued to edge higher, with WTI trading above $105 and Brent hovering around $109, keeping inflation concerns front and center. That’s arriving at a tricky moment for equities—both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just hit fresh highs last week, and the Dow briefly topped the 50,000 mark before momentum started to fade.

The shift really showed up late last week when rising global bond yields shook confidence. The U.S. 30-year yield pushed to its highest level in about a year, putting pressure on equities—especially tech. The Nasdaq-100 dropped 1.5% Friday, its worst single-day hit since late March, as higher rates took the shine off growth stocks.

Geopolitics aren’t helping either. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain elevated, with negotiations stalled and rhetoric heating up. That’s keeping oil prices supported and adding another layer of uncertainty for markets already dealing with inflation concerns.

Speaking of inflation, last week’s data pretty much slammed the door on any near-term rate cuts. The Fed now has very little flexibility, as the broader macro backdrop just doesn’t support easing anytime soon.

Throughout the session, bond yields stayed choppy but ultimately moved higher, with the 30-year testing above 5.15%—levels we haven’t seen since late 2023.

Meanwhile, the dollar eased back a bit, gold held steady around $4,550, and silver managed to grind slightly higher.

Bitcoin had a rougher ride, swinging sharply and briefly testing $76K—its lowest level since April—before stabilizing.

All in all, between rising yields, elevated oil prices, and nonstop geopolitical headline swings, markets are stuck trying to make sense of a constantly shifting backdrop.

So, the question is: Do stocks need a bigger reset here, or can they shake this off and push back toward new highs?

Read More

ETFs On The Cutline – Updated Through 05/15/2026

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Do you want to know which ETFs are hot and which ones are not? Then you need my High-Volume ETF Cutline report. It tells you how close or far each of the 311 ETFs I follow is from its long-term trend line (39-week SMA). These are the ETFs that trade more than $5 million a day, so they are not some obscure funds that nobody cares about.

The report is split into two parts: The winners that are above their trend line (%M/A), and the losers that are below it. The yellow line is the line of shame that separates them. You can see how many ETFs are in each group and how they have changed since the last report (221 vs. 199 current).

Take a peek:

The HV ETF Master Cutline Report

If you are confused by some of the terms we use, don’t panic. I have a helpful Glossary of Terms for you.

If you want to learn more about the Cutline method and how it can make you rich (or at least less poor), read my original post here.

ETF Tracker Newsletter For May 15, 2026

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

RISING YIELDS AND CHINA DISAPPOINTMENT KNOCK STOCKS LOWER

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks took a step back as a tech sell‑off and a sharp jump in bond yields knocked the wind out of the market’s recent rally.

Adding to the sour mood, the much‑anticipated summit between Presidents Trump and Xi wrapped up without any major policy breakthroughs or meaningful business deals—leaving traders underwhelmed.

While both sides agreed the Strait of Hormuz needs to stay open, the handful of headlines that did come out of Beijing—like the Boeing order news—failed to impress.

At the same time, bond yields surged, with the 30‑year topping 5.1%, its highest level since 2025. That move followed a week of inflation data showing price pressures heating back up, especially with oil prices staying elevated. Rising rates tend to hit high‑growth stocks first, and tech felt it.

The broader concern lurking beneath the surface is market breadth. Stocks have been riding a record‑breaking run fueled by AI excitement, but peel back the layers and it’s clear the gains are being carried by just a handful of mega‑cap tech names.

The widening gap between the Magnificent 7 and the rest of the market has more traders questioning how sturdy this rally really is.

Even with U.S. macro data coming in stronger than expected, stubborn inflation, surging yields, and the “nothing burger” from Beijing were enough to send the bulls packing—at least for the day. Equities finished deep in the red across the board.

Oil prices moved higher after Trump left the China meeting without any meaningful discussion around boosting energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, reigniting worries about potential supply disruptions. Traders also stayed on edge as the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran continues to look fragile.

By week’s end, the S&P 500 managed to close in the green—but only because the Mag 7 did all the heavy lifting. Strip those out, and the S&P 493 actually finished the week in the red.

The dollar logged its second‑best week since November 2024, which weighed on precious metals. Gold found support near $4,500, while silver’s wild swings stole the spotlight—giving back an 11% midweek gain to finish down about 5%.

Bitcoin followed a similar path, briefly testing $82K earlier in the week before sliding back toward $78K.

In the end, all roads still lead back to interest rates—and with this growing gap between yields and equities, something eventually has to give. So, which one moves first?

Read More