1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened under pressure and stayed there for most of the day, as oil prices kept surging on supply disruption fears from the ongoing U.S.-Iran war.

West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 9% to around $95 a barrel, while Brent climbed 8% to roughly $100.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei (appointed March 9) doubled down, saying the Strait of Hormuz should stay closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy.”

Energy Secretary Chris Wright added that the U.S. Navy isn’t ready yet to escort tankers through the Strait but should be by month’s end. Overnight, three more foreign vessels were hit in the Persian Gulf—traffic there is basically at a standstill.

That oil spike fueled inflation worries and kept risk-off sentiment in charge. The S&P 500 and Dow closed sharply lower, with the Nasdaq also in the red. Small Caps were the day’s biggest loser (no short squeeze help), and the Mag 7 underperformed the rest of the S&P.

On the macro side, things were actually upbeat: January trade deficit narrowed, housing starts rose 7.2% (beating expectations), initial jobless claims edged down, and GDP tracking now sits at 3.3% annualized. But the oil and war headlines drowned it all out.

Bond yields rose across the board (rate-cut expectations collapsed), the dollar rallied for the second day in a row, gold broke back below $5,100, and Bitcoin stayed coiled in a tight range around $70,000—breakout coming, but direction unclear.

1. Moving the market

The major indexes opened lower as traders kept one eye on the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict and oil prices, which spiked early on worries about supply disruptions.

The Dow was the biggest laggard, but the broader market got a lift later when the International Energy Agency announced it would release 400 million barrels from its reserves—the largest-ever drawdown—to help offset the war-related supply squeeze.

Overnight reports added to the tension: U.S. forces reportedly sank several Iranian ships (including 16 minelayers) near the Strait of Hormuz, where Tehran had been trying to mine the route.

But President Trump had said earlier this week that the war would end “very soon,” which reinforced hopes for a quick de-escalation and helped calm nerves.

The February CPI came in at 2.4% year-over-year, right in line with expectations, following recent signs of a softening labor market. That gave the Fed a little breathing room but didn’t spark any fireworks.

Oracle was the day’s standout, jumping 10% after beating Q3 earnings and revenue and raising its fiscal 2027 forecast.

The Mag 7 managed to outperform the rest of the S&P 493 despite some afternoon fading, while an early short squeeze in small caps lost steam.

Bond yields rose sharply (taking some wind out of equities), the dollar gained, gold lost its $5,200 handle again, and Bitcoin dipped mid-session but rallied briefly above $71K before settling with a small gain.

As we’ve seen all week, this market can swing violently in both directions on headline ping-pong—today was no exception.