No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 4/24/2008

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Bulls and bears engaged in a tug-of-war with the bulls coming out ahead for the week by a slight margin.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs has moved now +1.33% above its long-term trend line (red), which means we remain close to breaking out to the upside of the neutral zone.



The international index dropped to -2.58% below its own trend line, keeping us in a sell mode.



For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

Going Nowhere

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

The markets zigzagged yesterday, but ended up closing modestly higher thanks to support from industry heavyweights Boeing and Microsoft. Despite this higher close, participation was not widespread, which explains why our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) retreated slightly.

The domestic TTI fell to a level of +1.37% above its long-term trend line, just below the upper range (+1.50%) of the neutral zone. We will hold off with any further commitments to the domestic market until a sustainable breakout occurs.

The International TTI slipped as well and is now positioned -3.82% below its own long-term trend line, which has kept us out of this market since 11/31/07.

Off The High

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

The markets retreated yesterday as the dollar’s record new low against the Euro, along with soft earnings and oil prices hugging the $120/barrel mark, proved too much resistance. The bears prevailed and sent the major indexes lower, although a rebound late in the session cut down on the losses.

Our domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) came off its high, and dropped below the +1.50% threshold to +1.48%. This means we’re back in the neutral zone and will have to wait for another breakout with legs before making any commitments to that market.

The International TTI retreated as well and is currently positioned -3.32% below its own long-term trend line. The bottom line is that there have been no changes to our investment positions.

If the domestic TTI continues to vacillate around its buy level, I will post updates as necessary in this blog so that you can easily follow the changes in our investment strategy as they occur.

Are We There Yet?

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Yesterday’s fairly calm day in the market pushed our domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) through the upper range of the neutral zone (+1.50%) to a level of +1.73% above its long-term trend line.

As I mentioned in last Thursday’s post, I like to see that level supported for a few trading days to be sure that there is enough follow through buying to support this current trend. If this comes to pass, I will announce a new Buy signal on this blog the day it occurs. I will then ease into the domestic markets with about 1/3 of portfolio value, not all at once, but over a week or so. My no load fund/ETF selections will be based on those showing the strongest upward momentum numbers.

The international Trend Tracking Index (TTI) has improved but still remains -3.01% below its own long-term trend line in bear market territory.

As I am posting this on Tuesday morning, the markets are down sharply and, barring any sudden recovery, we may end up again back in the neutral zone below the +1.50% level. This potential buy may or may not materialize. I will keep you posted.

Another Bailout

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Market Watch reports that the Bank of England is to unveil a mortgage bailout:

Faced with rising mortgage rates that threaten to worsen a housing downturn, the Bank of England will unveil a plan Monday to allow banks to swap billions of pounds worth of mortgage-backed securities for British government bonds in a bid to thaw frozen credit markets, Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling said Sunday.

“The Bank of England will be making an announcement” on Monday, Darling said in a BBC television interview. “What it will do is effectively lend banks money to unfreeze the situation we have got at the moment.”

Shares of Britain’s biggest lenders rose late last week in anticipation of the plan. Darling also said he expects more banks to unveil details of subprime-related losses, the size of their mortgage-backed securities holdings and plans to raise capital.

U.K. mortgage rates have risen and lenders have increasingly tightened lending conditions and have pulled some mortgage products off the market as banks have become increasingly reluctant to lend money to each other.

Banks have hoarded cash as they’ve sought to rebuild their own balance sheets in the wake of the subprime mortgage meltdown, analysts say. Also, uncertainty over the condition of rival banks saddled with mortgage-related securities has made banks reluctant to make loans to each other.

The plan to be unveiled by the central bank is expected to see the Bank of England offer to swap as much as 50 billion pounds worth of government bonds, or gilts, for certain types of mortgage-backed securities for a period of up to a year or more, according to analysts and news reports. Banks would then be able to use the government bonds as collateral for loans from other banks.

Darling said the plan would help open up the U.K. mortgage market.

“We are doing our bit and I would like to see the banks pass on the benefit of the three interest rate cuts” by the Bank of England since December, Darling said.

Rising mortgage rates threaten to exacerbate a downturn in the British housing market, which could also accelerate a slump in consumer spending and worsen an expected economic slowdown, economists say.

Darling denied that the plan, which bears similarities to the expanded lending facility announced by the U.S. Federal Reserve last month, is a bailout. Banks will borrow the gilts, pledging the mortgage-backed securities as collateral.

[Emphasis added]

If it walks like a duck and squawks like a duck, it most likely is a duck. Just as the Fed’s willingness to accept sub par securities in exchange for U.S. Treasuries, the Bank of England has chosen to go the same route.

The plan is expected to see banks forced to take a “haircut” on the value of the mortgage-backed securities in a bid to protect taxpayers should a bank be unable to repay and the Bank of England is stuck with the mortgage-backed security. Strictly as an example, banks could be allowed to post 100 pounds worth of securities in return for 80 pounds worth of bonds, economists said.

OK, so they try to build in a safety cushion, although that is not a sure thing yet. So far no one has been able to accurately determine fair market value for any of these pledged securities here in the U.S. or in England. At least, there is no public knowledge of it.

Here’s the rub. If the values are less at sometime in the future, the loss will be socialized, if there is a gain, it will be privatized by the Bank of England. That smells like a sugar coated bailout to me.

Sunday Musings: Market Dichotomy

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Last week’s rally, and the fact that our domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) is now within striking distance of a Buy signal, caused a number of readers to email with comments and questions.

Some old sayings such as “sell in May and go away” were quoted along with fears of whipsaws due to continued market volatility. Others were worried about economic fundamentals such as recession fears and large businesses like Citibank continuing to write-down massive amounts of losses.

What it came down to was the question “how can this market rally, when all other news is so gloomy?” Let’s look at some of the major concerns:

1. “Sell in May and go away.” Sure, that line is based on the fact that at sometime in the past this might have been a good decision, and I’m sure it will be again in the future. However, there have also been tremendous market rebounds, which lasted through the summer; so using that as basis for making investment decisions it simply not wise.

2. Yes, fundamentally, when you look at just about all economic data, a recession is said to have started a few months ago and, despite current market behavior, which is based on the fact that a bottom in financial assets has been reached, this up trend could very well reverse again.

Here’s were I differentiate between my view of the fundamentals and my investment methodology. My economic view currently supports a recession scenario, massive further write-downs, higher unemployment and a host of unknowns, all of them negative for the market.

However, that fundamental view and opinion has absolutely nothing to do with my investment decisions. I follow trends and when it’s time to move into the market, I will do so based on momentum figures. I simply accept the fact that I can have a different view of the world than my investment plan dictates, because with that plan I have removed the emotional and subjective factors.

Looking only at fundamentals creates such a huge number of variables which I can’t assess, so I simply remove most of them by strictly following price action via trends.

3. More write-downs are coming, that’s a pretty safe bet. The key is whether they come as a surprise to the market place (bad news) or are anticipated, because they turned out better than the worst scenario. For more on bean counter accounting in the case of Citibank’s $5 billion write down, see Mish Shedlock’s article “Digging into Citigroup’s numbers.”

4. Whip-saw fears. Last week I posted Whip-saw thoughts and offered some ideas as to how to handle them.

There is one absolute sure way for you to avoid any whip-saw signals: Don’t invest! Other than that you simply have to accept them as a part of doing business. The key is to keep the losses manageable. This is why I continue harping on the trailing stop loss.

Getting whip-sawed and becoming afraid, could be hazardous to your financial health. Let’s take a look at the following chart:

As you can see, in this scenario, a whip-saw signal was followed by the resumption of the major trend, which more than made up for the small loss taken. While things will not always work out as in this example, it demonstrates the fact that you need to remove all emotional and subjective decisions as much as you can.

No, it’s not easy, but all successful long-term trend followers have learned this “secret” and so can you. Remove as many variables from your decision making process and focus only on what truly matters: Where is the trend headed?