Big And Ugly

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Big and ugly is the only way to describe yesterday’s market fall in which the widely followed S&P; 500 index fell 6.1% to its lowest level in five years.

This bear has more muscle and momentum than many expected, which is reflected by the simple fact that the S&P; has now lost almost 32% since our domestic sell signal was generated effective 6/23/08. That’s in only four months!

Despite clear evidence of a bear market, some simply can’t make a 100% commitment to the fact that staying on the sidelines is a wise thing to do. I was reminded of that as I read an article by Merrill’s strategist Richard Bernstein titled “New bull market nowhere in sight.”

It’s not a worthwhile read but the bottom-line is that he talks out of both sides of his mouth. According to him, there is no bull market in sight for years yet he favors having portfolio exposure to stocks of 50%.

Huh? If that is confusing to you, it makes perfect sense to me. If he would promote a 100% cash position, he’d be digging his own grave. What then would Merrill’s commissioned army of thousands of hungry sales people sell? This way, they still have a reason to call you and try to sell you stocks that are heading south or structure worthless fully diversified portfolios.

I can see why this man is Merrill’s strategist…

Here’s another tidbit of an embarrassing PR disaster that happened yesterday and did not influence the markets positively. At a congressional hearing, the top brass of the nation’s bond-rating companies struggled to explain away e-mails that said the agencies would give anything a decent rating if the price was right. One Standard & Poor’s analyst told a colleague the company would rate a deal even if it had been “structured by cows.”

This underscores the absolute uselessness of ratings companies as Mish over at Global EconomicTrends has been mentioning for over a year.

The Dangers Of Bottom Picking

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Every time the market makes a new low, you hear someone declaring a bottom followed by some wild explanation as to why a turn-around to the upside is imminent and good times are lurking around the corner.

Furthermore, opinions abound why this very moment in time would be a good one to pick up a stock that is considered cheap given historical data. While this kind of bottom picking may work during temporary reversals in a bull market, different rules apply when the bear strikes with full force.

Many in the investment world (including so called professionals) haven’t caught on to that fact and are following bullish strategies while getting their head handed to them on a silver platter. There is a penalty for ignorance, and it usually manifests itself in the form of a severe portfolio haircut. The funny thing about that is that the bear does not discriminate and wreaks havoc on $50k portfolios with the same force as it does with those in the range of billions of dollars.

I was reminded of that when I read billionaire Kirk Kerkorian’s latest clash with brutal reality when one of his investments in Ford so far ended up with a loss of some $700 million in only four months.

MSN Money reported it as follows:

Kerkorian’s Tracinda Corp. bought 100 million shares of Ford in April at $6.91 a share. He bought another 20 million shares at $8.50 and added 22 million shares on top of that at $6.54. Total investment: $1.007 billion.

He realized $17.7 million on this week’s sale. Ford was selling for $2.22 a share Tuesday morning, which means Kerkorian’s remaining stake is worth $317.4 million. So, combining what he did sell with the market value of what’s left, his loss is now $689.4 million — 68.4%.

In fact, 2008 has been very very bad to the 91-year-old financier. His net worth was estimated at $11.2 billion by Forbes magazine in September; it’s now much less than that.

Shares in his best-known holding, MGM Mirage, have fallen 85% in the last year, cutting the value of Kerkorian’s shares from almost $15 billion to $2.2 billion — a loss of $12.7 billion. MGM Mirage is Las Vegas’ largest casino company, ranked by hotel rooms. The problem: a weak economy that has slammed business in Vegas.

Plus, his stake in Delta Petroleum has fallen 68.3% since December 2006, leaving Kerkorian with a loss on paper approaching $752.9 million. Worse, as the New York Post noted, he had to put all those shares up as collateral five months ago to get a $600 million credit line from Bank of America. The problem: falling oil prices.

But at least he could get a credit line.

These numbers add up to mind boggling losses. I think Mr. Kerkorioan and his team need a lesson in simple investment basics how one can protect himself from devastating losses via sell stops or simple trend following.

Otherwise, why on earth would you still hold on to an investment like MGM that has lost 85% over the past year? Take a look at the chart:


Now tell me, if you’ve been following trends for a while, at what point would you have sold? High 70s or thereabouts would not have been too difficult a point to detect a directional change at.

As this bear trend progresses, you will find more stories like these where brand name investors will give back billions of their assets by simply betting on the wrong horse or being way too early. Granted, there is always a chance that via random luck someone may hit a home run, but that will have nothing to do with investing but everything with gambling.

Trends will eventually reverse again and for you to successfully grow your portfolio, you don’t need to be in at the exact bottom. You’ll be better off waiting for a real bottom to form before committing your money so that the odds of a continued rally are stacked in your favor.

Let The Crisis Burn Itself Out

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The markets rocketed upwards yesterday propelled by promises of a second stimulus package from congress, which was endorsed Fed chairman Bernanke. Anything to postpone current discomfort is welcome news on Wall Street. Sure, let’s try to borrow our way out of this credit crisis.

Many readers have asked what the one thing was that made the biggest contribution to the demise of many investment firms and banks. Without a doubt, it was leverage. For some thoughts on that, take a look a this video clip:

[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kDxMtBlwNdE]

Value Investing Equals Nonsense

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This is not headline news, but the stock market is so bad that VP Cheney has invited his stock broker for a hunting trip…

While that can’t really be verified, there’s probably some truth to the fact that many investors feel that way.

Below are some words of wisdom and insights from Al Thomas, author of the book “If It Doesn’t Go Up, Don’t Buy It!”

As always, Al’s unique style does not belie the fact that he’s one of the few who knows what he’s talking about, since he’s experienced it all in his long investment career. Here’s his take on the nonsense of value investing:

VALUE INVESTING EQUALS NONSENSE

No one needs talk about the condition of the stock market today. In a word it stinks.

So many people have been watching their 401Ks decrease in value they won’t open their statements. They better get their heads out of the sand and take charge because the current money
mangler (and I didn’t misspell that) doesn’t know what he is doing.

Fund managers are mesmerizing their customers (yes, you are just a customer even though they give you fancy names like investor, client, shareholder) with 10-year performance records.
Such B.S.! Who cares what happened 10 years ago. What have you done for me lately?

Brokers, money managers and so-called financial planners all seem to have learned how to lose money. 99% of them have no clue on how to protect a customer’s money.

The latest talking point you can hear on all the financial TV channels is “value investing”. Various mavens, economists and other experts want the poor investor (getting that way more so every day) to look at the quality of the stocks in their portfolio.

What quality? It doesn’t make any difference how good (?) a company is if the price of the stock goes down. One of the great quality stocks also known as a defensive issue because it is in a group that is not supposed to decline during a bear market is the Kellogg Company. It just fell off the table dropping from 57 to 48 in a week. That’s 15%. If you were a boxer you’d be lying on the canvas.

All the conversation about the value in the corporate balance sheet is nonsense if the stock is losing. Their value formulas must have been made up by Mickey’s friend Goofy. VALUE INVESTING EQUALS NONSENSE!

There is one way to tell value. Is the stock, ETF or mutual fund is going up? That is all any investor needs to know. The rest is smoke and mirrors. When there is a loss of more than 10% of value it is time to sell. At least Mr. Investor will have 90% of his money. When looking at the statement today he would immediately say I’ll take that 10% loss just give me back the difference. Sorry, Bud, it won’t happen.

None of these geniuses have been trained to protect client’s money with very simple stop loss techniques. None of them have been taught how to sell. None of them (well, 99%) have any exit strategy.

Has the investor ever asked his manager (sorry, mangler) to explain his exit plan to protect customer money? Probably not. Wall Street does not teach any of these clowns asset protection. It is all long term and sweat it out. Yeah!

Better get on the phone and ask why these “safe” mutual funds have lost so much and does he have a plan to make it back. How about a plan not to lose any more? See what kind of nonsense answer that will bring. How about asking for a guarantee. Fageddaboutdit.

It is your money. Since the money manager is not managing it then you better take over to be sure there is value when you need the funds.

There are very few investment professionals in this country who I agree with. Al is right on with this story, and I hope that his view point enables you to see through the BS that is being dished out on a daily basis by the media as well as the talking heads on the financial news shows.

Sunday Musings: Curing America’s Financial Ills

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One of my favorite authors, Robert Ringer, had these thoughts in regards to solving the financial crisis featured in an article called “The Great Bailout Stall:

Now that the Demopublicans and their media friends have, through the magic of doublespeak, transformed the massive and fraudulent bailout bill into a heroic “economic rescue plan,” most Americans can refocus their couch-potato efforts back on reality TV shows, football, and electronic gadgets. After all, the problem has been resolved, right?

Earth to American taxpayers: Nothing has been resolved! In fact, dishonest and cowardly Congressmen/women have virtually assured us, through their actions, that the financial crisis will get worse – much worse.

Nevertheless, I’ve learned, through experience, that no one can accurately predict the timing of economic events, because everything is controlled by an entity – the government – that has a monopoly on (1) printing “money,” (2) taxing its serfs, and (3) using force against anyone who dares to defy its will.

If you could print your own money, make others give you their money, and use force in the marketplace to achieve your ends, do you think you might be able to prolong the consequences of your actions? You would, of course, eventually fail. But it would be impossible for anyone to predict at what point in time your misdeeds would bring you down.

The most practical solution to America’s financial ills is to face the music- now, rather than later. The major question of our time has not been raised by anyone in the media: Are you prepared to lower your standard of living – even suffer – so your children and grandchildren can enjoy a better standard of living and not have to suffer worse than you?

Put more directly, are you prepared to face the moral and Constitutional reality that you are entitled to absolutely nothing other than the right to pursue your own success and happiness in any way you so choose, so long as you do not commit aggression against others?

In other words, are you prepared to go “cold turkey” in exchange for freedom? I’m sorry to say that my personal take on the pulse of our country is that not many people are willing to give up (a false sense of) security in exchange for freedom. Which is why even the staunchest conservatives in the Republican wing of the Demopublican Party will not name specific government programs they would be willing to eliminate. (Not cut – eliminate.)

When the hopeless, stand-for-nothing J. McBama talks about “letting the marketplace sort things out for the economy,” he is quick to assure voters that the government will, of course, pay unemployment benefits to those “in need,” retrain (as in $$$) people who have lost their jobs, etc., etc., etc.

Message to J. McBama: It’s not the government’s Constitutional role to shore up people who have lost their jobs – nor does it have a moral right to do so. Job loss and job retraining are simply none of the government’s business.

And, contrary to what politicians, the media, and most Americans seem to believe, it’s not the government’s job to “get the economy moving again.” Sorry, but it’s simply not in the Constitution. Economic stability can be created only by allowing the market to take its natural course and rid the economy of synthetically created wealth.

In more blunt terms, what I’m talking about here is a deflationary depression. Make that a massive deflationary depression. As I’ve said so often, we’ve been in an invisible depression for at least 30 years. What I’m advocating is that we ignore the daily lies that come out of Washington and demand that the invisible depression be allowed to reveal itself.

I can already hear some readers saying, “That Ringer is a really bad guy. He lacks compassion.”

Not so. On the contrary, I have a great deal of compassion for the millions of people who are hurting financially. And, quite frankly, it makes me angry when I think about what politicians have done to bring about so much of their pain and suffering.

I know what it’s like to be homeless. I know what it’s like to have your gas and electricity shut off. I know what it’s like to be without a car. I know what it’s like to eat cold, canned soup for dinner. But I’ll tell you this: The only way I ever improved my bad situation was to look in the mirror, face the reality that suffering was going to be an integral part of my life until I could turn things around on my own, and work my tail off – sometimes 18 to 20 hours a day. I never applied for welfare and I never asked anyone to retrain me. I lowered my standard of living… I suffered… and I worked hard.

Now I’m going to share a somewhat gross analogy with you to help make my point that the only viable solution to America’s financial demise is to allow the invisible depression to become visible as quickly as possible.

Many years ago, before modern medicine had come up with more humane procedures for dealing with hemorrhoids, I suffered through a period of extreme discomfort. Over the course of about a year, I visited two proctologists, but nixed letting them put me under the knife. Instead, they gave me a variety of salves and ointments to deaden the pain. As a result, I had “invisible” hemorrhoids. They were still there, of course, but by applying medication, I could pretend they weren’t. What a marvelous delusion.

Finally, it got to the point where salves and ointments could no longer bail me out. In desperation, I went to a third doctor – one who’d been touted in a newspaper article as “the best in his field.” After a cozy little examination, he said to me: “I’ll give it to you straight. Your problem will never get better on its own. The only way to get rid of it is through surgery.”

I was in such pain that, without even thinking about it, I blurted out, “When can you do it?”

“Tomorrow,” he said. “It’s my day in surgery.”

Without giving myself the opportunity to mull over it (and probably put it off), I impulsively said, “Okay.”

Out of respect to your sensibilities, I won’t give you the gory post-operation details. Let it just suffice to say that, for the first few days, I regretted having been so impulsive. But soon I started to get progressively better. And within a month, the entire experience was nothing but a bad dream – and I was pain-free. I had survived the medical equivalent of a deflationary depression by getting it over with.

Now, I ask you to help spread the word – friend by friend, neighbor by neighbor, coworker by coworker – that what America needs is a hemorrhoid operation, not more bailouts. That means a lot of pain and suffering for all of us. And, make no mistake about it, we deserve it for having allowed our elected officials to turn the Constitution upside-down and dupe us into believing that we are obliged to answer to them rather than the other way around.

The time has come for us to tell the politicians that we don’t want any more economic salves and ointments. The only way for things to get better is for government to get out of the way and stop making things worse. I say: My fellow Americans, ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for yourself.

Whether you agree with Robert’s points or not, they are bound to make you think. Feel free to post your opinion by clicking on the “comment” label below.

Know Your CD

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Given the uncertainties in the market place, many readers have emailed me asking what I thought of temporarily investing in CDs until the storm blows over.

MarketWatch had some good advice about avoiding the various pitfalls in an article titled “Know Your CD.” Here are some highlights, but be sure to read the entire piece and follow the listed links if this subject interests you:

Given the financial meltdown, certificates of deposit are king.

After all, CD yields now range from 3% to 4.5%, while shorter-term U.S. Treasuries are yielding from below 1% to about 2%.

Another attraction of bank CDs: The federal bail-out bill, adopted Oct. 3, increased government-backed FDIC and NCUSIF (National Credit Union Share Insurance Corp.) insurance to $250,000 per owner, up from $100,000.

The following are also covered up to $250,000: Each holder of a joint account; certain bank-deposit IRA funds and some other retirement accounts; and each trust owner and beneficiary if specific rules are followed. But beware. The higher $250,000 federal insurance limit expires Dec. 31, 2009 — even if your CD has a later maturity date.

Understanding CDs is tougher than it once was. Here are some issues to consider:

1. Check early withdrawal penalties carefully. It’s no longer standard for banks to charge you three months’ or six months’ worth of interest. Some institutions may use complex formulas based on current rates and, in some cases, the term remaining. Some even charge interest that has not yet been earned, which could cut into your principal if you withdraw early.

2. Check whether another account or a specific minimum required balance is required to earn a high advertised rate.

3. Stay within federal insurance limits. Visit FDIC.gov or NCUA.gov to confirm your account is fully protected.

4. Check the institution’s condition. You can do this for free for a number of institutions at Bauerfinancial.com. While a financial institution’s condition should not matter if you stay within FDIC insurance limits, you could find your interest rate lowered in an FDIC-assisted merger. Find a federally-insured credit union you might be able to join at CreditUnion.coop.

5. Find out how you will be notified when your CD matures and what will happen to your money. Many institutions today automatically roll over your CD. However, some may put it into a low-interest or no-interest account. You might not want any of this to happen.

6. Watch for CDs with rates that are not fixed for the entire term. You may not earn as much as you think.

Sometimes, it’s more convenient to buy a CD through a broker. However, this also may be a tad riskier. Generally, brokered CDs are issued by banks via a “master CD” to deposit brokers or broker-dealers, which in turn, sell interests to you.

The individual CDs still are FDIC-insured. But usually broker-sold CDs are considered securities and may be more complex than a CD you get from a bank.

For one thing, they may come in longer terms — as long as 20 years. They may have variable interest rates and “call” features, which mean the institution has the one-sided option to return your deposit, usually at specified intervals, forcing you to reinvest at lower interest rates.

The interest rate may fluctuate, based on a published index. The hottest new types of brokered CDs, for example, have interest rates that may change based on the performance of derivatives.

Unlike most bank CDs, you may not be able to withdraw early from a brokered CD. And although most CDs will allow withdrawals if the owner dies, not all do.

If you wish to withdraw early, your only option at a brokerage may be to sell your CD on the secondary market. Not all brokers will do this for you. Plus, you frequently can expect to take a haircut on your CD’s value if you sell early, especially if interest rates have risen. After all, who would want your lower-rate CD?

With a broker, there could be more administrative delays in getting your money if your institution fails. When the FDIC closes a bank and sells deposits, it often will not pass brokered funds to an acquiring bank because it’s considered “hot” money, says FDIC spokesman David Barr.

Although the FDIC notifies brokers the day a bank closes that it needs to verify records, brokers have taken as long as eight weeks to get the FDIC necessary documentation. Some customers have earned no interest during this period.

Still, Barr says that after some recent big failures, brokers have gotten faster in providing required documents.

Whenever you invest through a broker, check whether your deposits are being sent to a bank at which you already have accounts. You don’t want to inadvertently exceed FDIC insurance limits.

Above all, note that not all brokers selling CDs are FINRA-registered, like your stockbroker. If the entity selling a CD is not well-known, confirm the issuer is not a scam artist. One way to do that is by checking up on the company through your state securities division or state attorney general.

There you have it; it’s not as simple as it used to be, and you have to make the decision whether the due diligence is worth the effort. If you decide to go that route anyway, how long should you commit yourself? Personally, I recommend no more than 6 months maximum so you are ready to participate in a market trend reversal should one materialize.