Reader Question: Which High Point Is Right When It Comes To Sell Stops?

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Amazingly, there is always a question that has not been asked, although I thought I had heard them all. Here’s what reader Gary had to say:

In using a high, from which to calculate a 7% or 10% stop, it’s pretty easy with a mutual fund, because there is only one price per day.

But for ETFs, there is an intraday high and a closing price. I know you said to consider the stop triggered when the ETF CLOSES below the stop. But do you set the stop using the ETF’s highest high, or its highest close?

Which of these do you designate as the high from which you calculate the stop?

For the purpose of finding the high point, from which to calculate the trailing sell stops, I treat mutual funds and ETFs exactly alike.

To my way of thinking, there is only one price that matters and that is the closing price. What happens intraday is just market noise and of no consequence to me when it comes to sell stops.

Therefore, the high price, based on a closing basis only, is the one I am selecting. To clarify again, it is highest closing price of an ETF, since you bought it, which will be used as a basis for calculating your trailing sell stop.

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 2/17/2011

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Slow and steady was the theme of the week as the S& 500 gained about 1%.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs has moved above its trend line (red) by +6.01% (last week +5.47%) and remains in bullish mode.

The international index has broken above its long-term trend line by +10.25% (last week +9.08%). A new Buy signal was triggered effective 9/7/10. If you decided to participate, be sure to use my recommended sell stop discipline.

[Click on charts to enlarge]

For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No Load Fund/ETF Tracker StatSheet, please see the above link.

Cheering The Fed

Ulli Uncategorized Contact


It was a bit of a roller coaster ride yesterday, as the chart above shows. Strong earnings from Dell and Deere got the rally going, which was derailed shortly thereafter based on news reports that two Iranian warships were passing through the Suez Canal on their way to Syria.

Gold and oil rallied while the markets sold off, but they later regained footing as fears of a provocation subsided. Stepping in to lend an assist to market direction was the Fed by boosting their 2011 economic forecast to the 3.4% to 3.9% range, which was up from November’s announcement of 3% to 3.6%. The unemployment rate was projected to drop into the 8% to 9% range by yearend and below 8% next year.

That was all Wall Street need to hear, the cheering started, and the major indexes pulled off their lows and closed solidly above the unchanged line. Even the recently beaten down emerging markets participated while energy recovered from Tuesday’s pullback.

Touch And Go

Ulli Uncategorized Contact



Yesterday was a day of pondering in the markets, as concerns mounted about the possibility that the global recovery might be slowing down.

Inflation concerns in China and Great Britain occupied front page news followed by disappointing domestic retail sales in January.

Energy shares were a drag on the market, after Monday’s strong jump, following the theme that potentially slower sales growth will translate into less demand for energy products.

The beneficiary of the inflation fear story was gold, which headed higher for a second day in a row. Even though gold has been flat since the beginning of the year, it still should be an important component in an investor’s portfolio. Not only will inflation concerns in other parts of the world support its trend, so will sudden unexpected global uncertainties, which are sure to surface again.

While inflation is not a threat in the U.S. at this point, it sure is in other countries, such as China and Britain, among others. China reported a 4.9% inflation rate last month, which is about a 2-year high. Great Britain comes in at a close second with 4% followed by Spain with 3%.

Food prices have been rising around the world, which is represented by the fact that the commodity index (DBC) has risen sharply. While prices have not always been passed on to the end user yet, this development is worrisome in the sense that those with current high inflation rates will have to step on the economic brakes, so to speak.

Depending on the severity of the actions taken, that will not bode well for future global expansion and will eventually affect stock markets worldwide.

Disclosure: Holdings in DBC

Dip Buying Is Alive And Well

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

Despite elevated market levels, and fears of a correction, the dip buying mentality is alive and well as Reuters reports in “Buy That Dip, Baby:”

The new national pastimes are calling the top of the stock market, commenting on Middle Eastern affairs and — buying dips.

Stocks have shown remarkable resilience as investors snap up any drop in prices, even in the face of what seem like considerable risks — an overbought market and a still potentially explosive situation in the Middle East.

Confidence in the economy, strong earnings, and inflows into equities from bond funds have been enough to push indexes to new highs on an almost daily basis even if light volume and slight gains show investors are not making aggressive moves.

Robert Auer, a fund manager at SBAuer Funds in Indianapolis said that after eight months of outflows his Auer Growth Fund had started to see inflows.

“I’m wondering if this is happening at American Funds and Fidelity and everyone else,” he said. “I’m having to put it to work because we typically don’t hold any cash, so it is causing me to do buying.”

Bond funds have seen three months of outflows, the longest streak in more than 2 years.

Over that period $23 billion has moved out of bond funds while $16 billion has flowed into equity funds, according to data from the Investment Company Institute.
…

Rising yields have accompanied increasing optimism over the economy that will again be tested with retail sales and industrial output data during the week.

“Investors right now think the pullback is already here and they’re not buying stocks – and not selling but not buying at a time of inflows is forcing the market to drift higher,” said Thomas Lee, U.S. equity strategist at JPMorgan in New York.

Volume hit its lowest levels so far this year on Tuesday with just over 7 billion shares traded on the NYSE, Amex and Nasdaq compared to last year’s average of around 8.5 billion.

Lee is expecting a pullback in the March and April time frame, with the S&P; 500 rising to 1,333 before falling to around 1,250, taking the market back to where it was in late December.

“You really need to start buying at the 1,270 level,” he said. “You need to be selective and getting ready to buy that dip.”

The 1,333 level is the double-your-money mark from the bear market intraday low of 666.79 in March 2009 and is seen as a significant level by some investors.

[Emphasis added]

There you have it. 1,250 is the first number I have heard of where the eventual correction might end up, which is about a 6% pullback from current levels.

While buying dips in a bull market can have its obvious rewards, it only works….until it doesn’t. And that is the moment when a pullback turns into an actual trend reversal and market direction changes from bullish to bearish.

I for one will most certainly not rely on forecasts, like the above, by blindly using the 1,270 as a buy point. Make sure that the actual uptrend remains intact before deploying more monies in the market. That may cause you to enter at a slightly higher level, but you will have reduced downside risk considerably.

Sunday Musings: An All ETF 401k

Ulli Uncategorized Contact

It had to happen eventually. A major player would offer an all ETF 401k plan. While only very few custodians have ventured into that arena, Charles Schwab & Co. has announced that they are up to the task as well, as ETF Trends recently reported:

This news should cheer investors who want to see a wider array of all-exchange traded fund (ETF) 401(k) plans on the market: discount brokerage and ETF provider Charles Schwab is getting in on the action.

Schwab President and CEO Walter W. Bettinger II told a group of advisors recently that the firm has been hard at work on the launch of an all-ETF 401(k) plan in early 2012, says Lisa Shidler at RIABiz.

In keeping with Schwab’s low-cost ethos, its plan would save participants between 35% and 85% off a mid-sized plan, Bettinger said.

Schwab isn’t the first-mover in this growing space, but when the plan launches, it will be the biggest player by a long shot.

The move is huge for the ETF industry, which has been trying (and slowly succeeding) in cracking this market. There’s an estimated $3 trillion in 401(k) assets, and naturally, the ETF industry would like a bigger chunk of that.

The fear among naysayers has been that some 401(k) investors would trade all day, every day, but some employers may opt to limit such active trading if they add the plan to their rosters.

Schwab’s 401(k) plan is timely, since Congress has been closely eying the fees and expenses that mutual fund-based 401(k) plans charge. If Schwab can introduce a plan that saves people serious money, combined with the fact that ETF commissions are shrinking fast, the industry could be looking at moving well beyond its current $1 trillion in assets.

To me, it is not the old battle as to whether ETFs are a better investment than mutual funds. What it comes down is lower cost and less trading restrictions. Especially the latter has been a thorn in my eye for a long time.

I manage a few 401ks for clients, and the hoops I have to jump through to be sure I don’t rub the custodian the wrong way by making one too many portfolio adjustments are simply ridiculous and out of touch with reality.

I welcome this development and hope that other custodians will follow suit. After all, you as the plan participant are the one who stands to gain the most; and that’s what matters.