[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Bond yields were once again calling the tune today, keeping the major indexes on the defensive after yesterday’s losing session.
The 10-year hovered near levels not seen since 2007, while the 30-year remained near multi-decade highs, giving investors plenty to chew on.
Some relief came from oil, which dropped nearly 4% as Middle East tensions showed signs of easing and Saudi pipeline capacity began coming back online. Rate fears also cooled somewhat late in the session, helping stocks recover from their worst levels.
Still, the major indexes finished lower, with the Mag 7 lagging the broader S&P 493. The dollar strengthened, gold managed a respectable rebound from yesterday’s drubbing, while Bitcoin essentially went nowhere.
The good news?
We’re about to put historically rough late-September seasonality in the rearview mirror, and October, particularly in Midterm years, has often been a friendlier stretch. Of course, Wall Street has learned the hard way that seasonality is a tendency, not a guarantee.
With September nearly behind us and October knocking on the door, will the bulls finally answer?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Another soft session for the indexes, which opened in the red and stayed there, although a late bounce kept things from looking worse.
Metals showed some backbone, recovering a portion of yesterday’s losses.
Our TTIs edged lower, but the broader market outlook remains positive. A little turbulence, perhaps, but the flight plan hasn’t changed.
This is how we closed 09/29/2026:
Domestic TTI: +2.32% above its M/A (prior close +2.44%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +2.94% above its M/A (prior close +3.30%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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