Sunday Musings: 1929 Wall Street Stock Market Crash

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One anonymous reader submitted the following PBS video, which revisits the 1929 market crash. To me, there are some eerie similarities to today’s environment especially when looking at the total disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.

Can it happen again? Sure, only time will tell. However, it was not the crash that was devastating; it was the years that followed. To be clear, I am not making any predictions here, but I find it worthwhile to occasionally revisit history to see if there are any obvious parallels to current conditions.


Reducing Risk

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The WSJ reports that “Bond ETFs Draw A Surge Of Funds:”

Investors burned by the stock-market meltdown are piling into bond exchange-traded funds in an effort to tone down risk and generate stable income.

In particular, ETFs tracking inflation-protected bonds and corporate debt have seen cash fly in the door this year, which reflects the trend of more investors using bond ETFs to manage the fixed-income side of their portfolios, industry insiders say.

“Now ETFs are giving investors precise, liquid and low-cost exposure to the bond market,” Mr. Tucker said. “This opens up the door for investors to do asset-allocation and sector-rotation strategies with fixed-income ETFs.”

At the end of June, there were 740 ETFs listed in the U.S. with total assets of nearly $600 billion, according to State Street Global Advisors. Bond ETFs accounted for only 63 funds and $78 billion, but the fixed-income portion of the business is expected to expand in coming years with bond giant Allianz’s Pacific Investment Management Co. and others entering the fray.

Investors have been pumping money into corporate-bond ETFs this year amid a solid rally in this beaten-down corner of the debt market.

Through the end of June, the two best-selling ETFs in 2009 in the iShares lineup tracked bonds. One of these was iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (trading symbol: LQD), with inflows, or net buying, of nearly $5 billion. The fund had total assets of $12.7 billion as of Aug. 6 and was the fourth-largest iShares ETF.

“The Federal Reserve has lowered rates and become much more aggressive in battling the financial crisis,” Mr. Tucker said. “Spreads have tightened, and we’ve seen some incredible rallies in corporate bonds since March.”

The bond strategist said the move has been driven by signs of stabilization in the U.S. economy, which should result in better profits for companies and allow them to service their debt. However, there could be declining demand for corporate bonds given how well they have already performed this year.

ETFs tracking high-yield corporate bonds, or “junk,” such as (HYG) and SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) have performed even better. Through Aug. 6, the funds had risen 16.8% and 22.6% for the year-to-date period, respectively, according to investment researcher Morningstar Inc.

Mr. Tucker said assets and trading volume in the high-yield ETF have “exploded” in the past year. It currently holds nearly $4 billion in its coffers and is yielding about 10%, according to Barclays. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.

“The market has repriced credit risk since the panic at the end of 2008. As the economy recovers, corporate default expectations fall back,” Mr. Tucker said.

Investors also have been plowing into ETFs indexed to Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, on fears that loose monetary policy and unprecedented government spending will ultimately push up inflation.

Assets in iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (TIP) have nearly doubled in 2009 to $14.7 billion. And the fund was up 3% so far this year through Aug. 6, according to Morningstar.

“Investors are looking for some way to protect against inflation,” Mr. Tucker said. “ETFs provide pure, diversified exposure to the TIPS market.”

The reason for pointing to this story is that we are continuing to live in a highly volatile investment environment. As last year has shown, many of these ETFs mentioned in the story took quite a beating. Not as bad as the S&P; 500, but enough to wipe out the dividends received and then some.

If you are investing in any of these instruments, you are well advised to treat them no different than equity ETFs by using a trailing sell stop and actually executing it when it gets triggered.

Unfortunately, an investment that can be held without worry that the principal will not be adversely affected at one time or another does not exist.

No Load Fund/ETF Tracker updated through 8/20/2009

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My latest No Load Fund/ETF Tracker has been posted at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/newsletter-archive.php

Despite a sharp Monday sell-off, the major indexes recovered, and the bulls came out in full force.

Our Trend Tracking Index (TTI) for domestic funds/ETFs has now crossed its trend line (red) to the upside by +6.16% keeping the current buy signal intact. The effective date was June 3, 2009.



The international index has now broken above its long-term trend line by +15.20%. A Buy signal was triggered effective May 11, 2009. We are holding our positions subject to a trailing stop loss.



[Click on charts to enlarge]

For more details, and the latest market commentary, as well as the updated No load Fund/ETF StatSheet, please see the above link.

A Lesson In Economics

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Thanks to reader Robert for sending in this little story on basic economics:

An economics professor at a local college made a statement that he had never failed a single student before but had once failed an entire class.

That class had insisted that Obama’s socialism worked and that no one would be poor and no one would be rich, a great equalizer.

The professor then said, “OK, we will have an experiment in this class on Obama’s plan”. All grades would be averaged and everyone would receive the same grade so no one would fail and no one would receive an A.

After the first test, the grades were averaged and everyone got a B.

The students who studied hard were upset and the students who studied little were happy.

As the second test rolled around, the students who studied little had studied even less and the ones who studied hard decided they wanted a free ride too so they studied little.

The second test average was a D! No one was happy.

When the 3rd test rolled around, the average was an F.

The scores never increased as bickering, blame and name-calling all resulted in hard feelings and no one would study for the benefit of anyone else.

All failed, to their great surprise, and the professor told them that socialism would also ultimately fail because when the reward is great, the effort to succeed is great but when government takes all the reward away, no one will try or want to succeed.

Could not be any simpler than that.

Against Expectations

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Many analysts had expected Monday’s sharp sell off to spill over into Tuesday, but it did not happen. The markets recouped about half of their losses from the previous day, and the major averages closed about 1% higher.

The commonly held view is still one of caution in that many feel that the market has advanced too far and too fast since the March lows to support economic reality. Helping the bulls today were better than expected earnings from Home Depot and Target, decent inflation news and a “less bad” report on housing starts.

Of course, there is always a fly in the ointment, and today was no exception. Volume was low and the rebound faded into the close suggesting hesitation on the part of the bulls.

There are no changes to our invested positions.

Bears On The Prowl

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The bulls had no chance yesterday. It was straight down from the opening bell with the bears feasting on a long overdue correction.

As a reader of this blog, this should come as no surprise to you as I have been harping for months on the fact that the signs of an economic recovery are more wishful thinking than reality.

Stocks got slammed as fear spread worldwide that any recovery might be weak at best as many had a chance to digest Friday’s consumer confidence data over the weekend. The U.S. followed the rest of the world down after nasty sell offs in China, Japan, India and Europe set the tone for this Monday. So much for the idea that worldwide diversification has any merits.

The big question now is whether this will be a one-day event or the beginning of more slippage. I don’t even want to guess, since it is out of my control anyway.

What is in my control is how I react should the markets head further south; my sell stop points are clearly defined, and I will execute them in the event we reach their levels.