ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 12/30/2011

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 110 (last week 107) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. Only 16 ETFs (last week 16) have managed to hang on in bullish territory after the recent volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 127 (last week 176) above the line and 734 below it out of the 861 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 1/1/2012

Ulli Market Review Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 1/1/2012.

The major indexes inched slightly lower into the last trading day of the year with the S&P 500 ending 2011 just about unchanged.

Heading into 2012, the world’s excessive debt overhang will remain headline news, as most attempts to solve these thorny problems have focused on providing the liquidity when the real issue has been insolvency.

Traders will return well rested next Tuesday ready to push buy and sell buttons depending on not only the news du jour but also on a host of economic reports ending with the all important employment numbers on Friday.

This week, we covered the following:

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A Rough 2011, But Will 2012 Get Any Better?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

It’s been a crazy year for markets to put it mildly. Europe descended into a full blown financial crisis, the U.S. failed to make significant headway in economic growth, and Asian economies started heading south. And the sad part is that 2012 might just be much of the same.

Looking back on 2011, Guardian economics editor Larry Elliot reviews the global economy and the dismal year it had (some of it is UK focused). While the PIIGS grabbed headlines for their poor finances, the European core has been hit as well, as evidenced by higher borrowing costs, downgrade threats, and political bickering. The U.S. story hasn’t improved either as housing weakness and high unemployment remain a significant drag.

Not only did developed markets continue to take a hit, but emerging markets felt the pain too. Despite booming growth in recent years, China’s manufacturing has slowed down while India is facing high rates of inflation. And given the dependence of many emerging nations on European banks, a fully fledged Eurozone meltdown could deal a major blow to the emerging world.

I’m afraid that we will be stuck in neutral territory for at least the first part of 2012. With Europe’s situation unresolved and persistent weakness elsewhere, it’s questionable if markets can gain enough momentum to trend up in the near future.

The January Effect: Will It Hold In The Current Investment Climate?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

As we head into 2012, there are a multitude of scenarios that may unfold. But looking at the short-term, some investors look forward to this time of the year because of the January Effect, an apparent anomaly that questions the efficient market hypothesis.

The January Effect is named for the fact that monthly performance in January has been overwhelming positive. This has primarily been attributed to large stock sell-offs in December for tax purposes, thus resulting in appreciation when investors flock in to buy stock in the New Year. That’s the logic at least.

Furthermore, the effect has been said to have a more pronounced effect on small cap stocks, which arguably are more susceptible to mispricing during periods of significant selling and buying that can benefit investors. For example, since 1926, small caps have outperformed large caps in January over 70% of the time.

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12-30-2011

Ulli Newsletter Archives Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, December 30, 2011

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/12/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-12292011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, December 30, 2011

NO PREMATURE NYE CELEBRATION AS MAJOR MARKET ETFS TAKE A DIP

As could be expected, the last trading day of the year didn’t have too much excitement in store. The S&P 500 finished down 0.43%, ending 2011 almost exactly at the same level from where it started the year.

However, other global markets didn’t fare well this year with $6.3 trillion in market value gone. For instance, Asian markets where the Nikkei lost 17% and the Shanghai Composite lost 22%. And it doesn’t look like next year will offer much hope for improvement at the current rate of Europe’s deterioration.

The 10-year Treasury dipped to a yield of 1.87%, indicating that risk is still quite high although the current VIX level might appear to show otherwise. It’s been a wild roller coaster as far as volatility has been concerned this year, which will likely extend into next year. We’ll all have to buckle up tight to say the last.

The Euro finished off the year at $1.30/Euro while hitting a 10-year low against the Yen, signifying the significant turmoil that persists in Europe as investors have shifted toward assets with limited European exposure.

Interestingly, although there has been greater demand for U.S. Treasuries from investors, foreign central banks have reduced their Treasury holdings.

Spain announced that it will impose further austerity measures and institute tax hikes in order to reduce its budget deficit, putting further strain on any hopes of near future growth. With its 2011 budget deficit coming in at 8% of GDP, which is higher than forecast, returning toward economic sustainability will be a very tall order.

China continues to experience weakness as data show that factory activity fell in December. With domestic demand unable to make up for diminished exports, China’s manufacturing woes may slide into 2012. Not to mention, there’s a property bubble blowing up and other factors pointing toward reduced growth prospects.

With regards to our Trend Tracking Indexes, nothing has really changed. The Domestic TTI (Trend Tracking Index) still hovers above its trend line by +2.33%, while the International TTI is currently at -7.65%. From this perspective, our long-term outlook remains the same.

Heading into 2012, I want to stress the importance of reducing risk via greater bond ETF holdings as global economic frailty hasn’t subsided. In the midst of all this market uncertainty and dour atmosphere, I hope you have a safe and fun-filled New Year celebration.

Best,

Ulli…

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READER Q & A FOR THE WEEK

All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:

http://www.successful-investment.com/q&a.php

A note from reader Maghar:

Q: Ulli: Why have you stopped updating the #7 portfolio as of 9/26/11?

A: Maghar: The #7 portfolio is the ETF equivalent of PRPFX. We got stopped out of it in September 2011 and have not reentered due to PRPFX having remained below its long-term trend line. In other words, that portfolio has been in cash since.

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WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?

Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:

https://theetfbully.com/personal-investment-management/

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Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

https://theetfbully.com/newsletter-archives/

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, December 30, 2011

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2011/12/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-12292011/

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Market Commentary

Friday, December 30, 2011

NO PREMATURE NYE CELEBRATION AS MAJOR MARKET ETFS TAKE A DIP

As could be expected, the last trading day of the year didn’t have too much excitement in store. The S&P 500 finished down 0.43%, ending 2011 almost exactly at the same level from where it started the year.

However, other global markets didn’t fare well this year with $6.3 trillion in market value gone. For instance, Asian markets where the Nikkei lost 17% and the Shanghai Composite lost 22%. And it doesn’t look like next year will offer much hope for improvement at the current rate of Europe’s deterioration.

The 10-year Treasury dipped to a yield of 1.87%, indicating that risk is still quite high although the current VIX level might appear to show otherwise. It’s been a wild roller coaster as far as volatility has been concerned this year, which will likely extend into next year. We’ll all have to buckle up tight to say the last.

Read More