[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Stocks came out of the gate with plenty of energy as oil prices tumbled and a few beaten-up tech names found their footing.
Traders were clearly positioning for a busy week ahead, with earnings, jobs data, and the midterm elections all competing for attention.
The early optimism didn’t last. By the closing bell, dip buyers had apparently decided to call it a day, leaving the S&P 500 and especially the Nasdaq in the red.
Tech got a brief boost from another big AI-related deal, but Oracle’s massive fundraising plans reminded investors that building AI infrastructure isn’t exactly cheap.
Elsewhere, falling bond yields pushed the dollar lower, giving gold a healthy rebound, while Bitcoin’s recovery rally ran out of steam.
In the end, today’s action looks a lot like a classic dead-cat bounce rather than the start of a fresh advance.
With Apple earnings and election results just around the corner, will they provide the spark tech bulls have been waiting for, or was today’s rally simply a dress rehearsal?
2 Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
An early bounce looked promising at the open, but by the closing bell it had all the makings of a classic dead-cat bounce, with only the Dow managing to hang on to a modest gain.
Metals were the bright spot, staying on their bullish track all day. Gold, silver, and copper all finished comfortably in the green.
Meanwhile, the tech wreck couldn’t derail our TTIs.
Both continued higher, though the domestic TTI showed noticeably stronger momentum. Not bad for a market that seemed determined to trip over its own shoelaces today.
This is how we closed 11/02/2026:
Domestic TTI: +6.16% above its M/A (prior close +5.35%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +3.55% above its M/A (prior close +3.27%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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