[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
The market finally found an excuse to smile today. Stocks rallied sharply as Treasury yields backed away from their recent highs after Fed Governor Waller suggested he’d be inclined to support holding rates steady, assuming upcoming inflation data doesn’t throw a curveball.
That comment was enough to shift the mood on Wall Street. Rate hike expectations eased, bond yields moved lower, and traders suddenly looked a lot more comfortable putting money back to work. A stronger yen also helped reinforce the decline in yields, giving equities an added tailwind despite oil prices remaining stubbornly high.
The weaker dollar added another layer to the story. Gold jumped 2.5% and reclaimed the $4,500 level, silver matched the move, and bitcoin decided subtlety was overrated, surging 5% to its highest close since mid-May above $81,000.
Of course, today’s optimism now faces its first real test tomorrow morning. With the jobs report and unemployment data on deck, the market may soon find out whether today’s rally was the start of something bigger or just a well-timed dress rehearsal.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The bulls grabbed the wheel right out of the gate today. Falling bond yields helped steady investors’ nerves, and the major indexes responded with a strong move higher.
The metals complex joined the rally, but bitcoin once again stole the spotlight, reminding everyone it still likes being the loudest guest at the party.
Our TTIs finally shook off some rust and posted gains of their own. Encouragingly, they moved in the right direction, although they still trailed the broader market.
This is how we closed 09/03/2026:
Domestic TTI: +8.36% above its M/A (prior close +7.64%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.77% above its M/A (prior close +6.91%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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