[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Today’s market move came down to one thing: the Treasury’s decision to significantly expand its buyback program for longer-term debt. That helped push long-term yields lower, and stocks responded with modest gains, led by small caps.
The bigger story, though, was the message the market seemed to take from it.
As the Treasury steps more aggressively into the bond market while federal debt approaches $40 trillion and foreign demand remains softer, investors quickly gravitated toward traditional inflation hedges.
Gold and silver surged more than 3%, and Bitcoin stole the show with a nearly 6% rally.
A weaker dollar added fuel to the fire, helping gold approach the $4,500 level while Bitcoin enjoyed its strongest session in months.
As BlackRock has noted, Bitcoin’s investment case increasingly resembles gold’s: a potential hedge against inflation, monetary uncertainty, and eroding confidence in fiat currencies.
For now, markets are celebrating lower yields and easier financial conditions. The bigger question is whether today’s rally marks the start of a new bullish cycle, or just the opening act of a much larger inflation story?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Today’s market story was really about the Treasury’s debt buyback announcement. Bond yields drifted lower, which gave stocks a little tailwind and helped the major indexes grind out modest gains.
But the more interesting action was elsewhere. Inflation worries lit a fire under metals and Bitcoin, with Bitcoin once again reminding everyone that subtlety is not its strong suit.
Our TTIs navigated the day nicely, and the domestic model was particularly impressive, turning in standout gains and continuing to show relative strength.
Not a bad day when stocks cooperate, bonds calm down, and your portfolio’s biggest challenge is keeping up with Bitcoin’s latest sprint.
This is how we closed 08/19/2026:
Domestic TTI: +10.32% above its M/A (prior close +9.19%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.91% above its M/A (prior close +7.75%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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