[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Today was a reminder that interest rates still matter, even in a market that’s been happily distracted by AI for much of the year.
Global bond yields pushed to levels not seen in years, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury hovering around 5.3% and long-term rates climbing across Japan and Europe. That’s the kind of move that eventually gets traders’ attention.
Stocks finally took notice. The S&P 500 slipped, pressured by higher yields, firmer oil prices, and weakness in semiconductor shares.
The AI crowd, which has largely ignored the rate story, led much of the retreat.
Meanwhile, gold lost its shine, the dollar was little changed, and Bitcoin somehow found its way back toward $65,000, apparently following its well-known strategy of doing the unexpected.
The bigger issue is that markets are still focused on where rates may end up, not where they’re starting from. If bond yields keep climbing, that could become a much stronger headwind for both stocks and bonds.
The “soft landing” narrative remains alive, but it’s looking a little less comfortable in the aisle seat.
Is the market finally waking up to the reality of higher-for-longer rates?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The global bond market stayed in the spotlight today, and it wasn’t exactly delivering peace of mind. Growing concerns over the ever-expanding U.S. debt load kept pressure on bonds, which spilled over into equities.
The major indexes all finished lower, with the Nasdaq leading the retreat.
Even the usual safe havens couldn’t catch a bid. Precious metals joined the selloff, proving that on some days investors seem determined to sell first and ask questions later.
Our TTIs gave back some ground as well, but compared to the broader market, they showed a bit more resilience.
Not a great day, but in a market mood like this, “less bad” can still count as a small victory.
This is how we closed 08/18/2026:
Domestic TTI: +9.19% above its M/A (prior close +9.68%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.75% above its M/A (prior close +7.95%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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