- Moving the market
Stocks had a rough day as a combination of rising geopolitical tensions, surging oil prices, and disappointing reactions to major earnings reports sent traders heading for the exits.
The biggest catalyst was a sharp jump in crude oil after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, reigniting fears that the Middle East conflict could broaden.
Adding fuel to the fire, President Trump threatened strikes against Iranian infrastructure, further rattling markets and pushing energy prices sharply higher.
Brent crude surged 6% to move back above $100 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 5% to top $91. Both benchmarks reached their highest levels since before the U.S. and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement last month.
Higher oil prices also spilled over into the bond market. Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year yield hitting its highest level since January 2025, while a stronger dollar added another headwind for risk assets.
Earnings season did little to calm nerves. Alphabet slid 7% after raising its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to as much as $205 billion, highlighting the enormous costs associated with the AI arms race.
While the company pointed to strong AI demand, investors appeared increasingly concerned about just how much hyperscalers are spending to stay competitive.
Tesla fared even worse, tumbling more than 13% after reporting a significant second-quarter earnings miss. Investors were especially disappointed that operating expenses grew faster than revenue, raising fresh questions about profitability.
Gold was unable to attract much safe-haven interest despite the geopolitical backdrop, slipping while remaining above the psychologically important $4,000 level.
Bitcoin also joined the risk-off move, falling below $65,000 and tracking weakness in technology stocks, even as spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted more than $1 billion in inflows this week.
Meanwhile, Peter Schiff noted that the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.18%, its highest level since April 2006. Back then, U.S. national debt stood at roughly $8.35 trillion. Today, it’s approaching $39.6 trillion.
If borrowing costs continue moving higher, how sustainable does that debt burden become over the long run?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The bears took control right from the opening bell and never let up, dragging the major indexes to steep losses by the close.
Metals joined the selloff, while the Value ETF was the lone bright spot, managing to finish barely in positive territory.
Our TTIs pulled back as well but held up considerably better than the major indexes.
The heavy selling was largely concentrated in technology stocks, which appeared to be the market’s primary target throughout the session.
This is how we closed 07/23/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.00% above its M/A (prior close +7.39%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +6.16% above its M/A (prior close +6.67%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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