- Moving the market
Stocks got off to a strong start today, with Big Tech leading the charge as investors welcomed more signs that inflation continues to cool.
Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft gained around 3%, while Alphabet added more than 1%, helping lift the major indexes. Risk appetite was also supported by strength in SpaceX shares.
The market’s upbeat mood was fueled by another encouraging inflation report. June’s Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell 0.3%, following Tuesday’s cooler-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading.
Together, the reports reinforced the view that inflation pressures may be easing, and that the Fed could have less reason to keep pushing interest rates higher.
New York Fed President John Williams added to that optimism, saying there are “encouraging reasons” to believe inflation has peaked and should continue edging lower in the coming quarters.
Even with stocks moving higher, gains were somewhat restrained as crude oil prices strengthened after renewed U.S. military action involving Iran raised geopolitical concerns.
Meanwhile, bond yields continued their recent decline, falling for a second straight day as investors dialed back expectations for additional Fed tightening.
The Mag 7 was clearly in rally mode, handily outperforming the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500.
Outside of equities, the dollar took a noticeable hit, gold marked time but managed to remain above the $4,000 level, and bitcoin surged to as high as $65,500 before giving back a small portion of those gains into the afternoon.
All in all, it was a relatively quiet day beneath the surface. The broad market remained largely range-bound, but falling inflation data pushed rate-hike expectations, bond yields, and the dollar lower.
Bitcoin enjoyed a strong rally, while the precious metals market largely stood still.
The big question now is: Will cooling inflation continue to fuel the tech-led rally, or will investors start looking beyond the Magnificent 7 for the market’s next move?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
It was all about tech today. The Magnificent 7 led the charge, easily outpacing the broader market.
Metals didn’t do much, and our TTIs painted a mixed picture, with the domestic indicator slipping back while the international indicator continued to advance.
This is how we closed 07/15/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.91% above its M/A (prior close +8.16%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +6.76% above its M/A (prior close +6.43%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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