ETF Tracker StatSheet
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FROM RECORD HIGHS TO MIXED SIGNALS: HOW MAY WRAPPED UP
- Moving the market
Stocks kept pushing higher to close out May, although the leadership was a bit mixed on the final trading day. The Dow led the way, while the Nasdaq lagged slightly—but zooming out, it’s still been a strong month overall.
On the company front, Dell Technologies stole the spotlight, with shares soaring 28% after delivering a solid earnings beat and raising its full-year outlook.
Chip names also chipped in: Micron climbed 4% and Qualcomm added 2%, continuing a rebound after earlier weakness this month. Despite some volatility, both are still on track to finish May with respectable gains.
The broader market is riding momentum from a record-setting session, helped in part by a temporary easing of geopolitical tension after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a 60-day memorandum aimed at extending a ceasefire.
That said, some analysts believe the market’s upward trend is being driven less by headlines and more by strong corporate earnings growth—a healthier foundation if it holds.
Looking at the scoreboard for May, all the major indexes are firmly in the green. The Nasdaq is leading the pack with an 8% gain, followed by the S&P 500 up 5%, and the Dow trailing with a still-solid 2% advance.
Elsewhere, it was a choppy month for bonds, with yields swinging back and forth before ending roughly unchanged.
Competing forces—rising rate hike expectations, falling oil prices, and ongoing inflation and growth concerns—kept things unsettled.
In currencies and commodities, the dollar ticked modestly higher, while gold slipped slightly after bouncing between key levels. Silver and copper managed small gains.
Crypto had a tougher go, with heavy Bitcoin ETF outflows pulling prices back toward the $72K level, leaving it down about 4% for the month after April’s strong rally.
So, after a strong May, the big question now is: does the momentum carry into June, or are we in for a slowdown after the market’s recent run?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Stocks had a solid run in May, with the major indexes posting strong gains. Tech stocks led the charge, jumping an impressive 19.37%, although the Value fund (VLUE) actually edged out the top spot with a 20% gain.
On the flip side, Energy and Utilities lagged, each slipping about 5.4% for the month.
In commodities, gold mostly held steady, while silver and copper managed to notch modest gains.
As for our TTIs, they finished the month essentially unchanged. That said, they’re still comfortably above their trend lines—an encouraging sign that the overall outlook for equities remains positive.
This is how we closed 05/29/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.52% above its M/A (prior close +7.54%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +9.94% above its M/A (prior close +9.69%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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