- Moving the market
Stocks pulled back early after last week’s record-setting run, as traders kept a close eye on rising oil prices, bond yields, and the latest developments out of the Middle East.
Oil continued to edge higher, with WTI trading above $105 and Brent hovering around $109, keeping inflation concerns front and center. That’s arriving at a tricky moment for equities—both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq just hit fresh highs last week, and the Dow briefly topped the 50,000 mark before momentum started to fade.
The shift really showed up late last week when rising global bond yields shook confidence. The U.S. 30-year yield pushed to its highest level in about a year, putting pressure on equities—especially tech. The Nasdaq-100 dropped 1.5% Friday, its worst single-day hit since late March, as higher rates took the shine off growth stocks.
Geopolitics aren’t helping either. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran remain elevated, with negotiations stalled and rhetoric heating up. That’s keeping oil prices supported and adding another layer of uncertainty for markets already dealing with inflation concerns.
Speaking of inflation, last week’s data pretty much slammed the door on any near-term rate cuts. The Fed now has very little flexibility, as the broader macro backdrop just doesn’t support easing anytime soon.
Throughout the session, bond yields stayed choppy but ultimately moved higher, with the 30-year testing above 5.15%—levels we haven’t seen since late 2023.
Meanwhile, the dollar eased back a bit, gold held steady around $4,550, and silver managed to grind slightly higher.
Bitcoin had a rougher ride, swinging sharply and briefly testing $76K—its lowest level since April—before stabilizing.
All in all, between rising yields, elevated oil prices, and nonstop geopolitical headline swings, markets are stuck trying to make sense of a constantly shifting backdrop.
So, the question is: Do stocks need a bigger reset here, or can they shake this off and push back toward new highs?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The major indexes opened higher, but that early optimism didn’t last long.
Selling pressure quickly took over, leaving the Dow as the only major index able to hang on to a modest gain by the close.
Small Caps took the biggest hit, while metals managed to grind out slight gains and finish in the green.
The sell‑off was largely concentrated in the tech space, which helped explain the uneven performance across the market.
Our TTIs held up relatively well in the choppy tape, with both posting moderate gains despite the broader tech-driven pullback.
This is how we closed 05/18/2026:
Domestic TTI: +5.00% above its M/A (prior close +4.35%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.65% above its M/A (prior close +8.17%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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