- Moving the market
Stocks came out strong early, with the Dow pushing back above the 50,000-mark helped by upbeat earnings from Cisco and encouraging headlines out of the U.S.–China meeting.
Cisco was a standout, jumping 17% intraday after beating expectations on both earnings and guidance, while also announcing plans to cut nearly 4,000 jobs. That surge gave the Dow a solid boost.
Nvidia added to the momentum, climbing more than 4% after reports that the U.S. cleared several Chinese firms to purchase its H200 chips—though shipments haven’t started yet.
Geopolitics also played a role. Iran was front and center during the Trump–Xi summit, with both leaders agreeing the Strait of Hormuz must remain open—easing, at least temporarily, due to fears around global energy supply.
Even with lingering concerns about higher oil prices weighing on parts of the market, tech stocks—especially semiconductors like Nvidia and Micron—continued to lead the charge.
Positive signals out of Beijing, combined with solid retail sales data, helped keep the rally intact. The “Magnificent 7” once again outperformed, though market breadth showed signs of improvement compared to recent sessions.
In the background, bond yields were choppy for most of the day before spiking late in the session, giving the dollar a lift. Gold held steady, while silver cooled off slightly but found support around the $84 level.
Bitcoin joined the risk-on move, climbing back toward $82K and showing signs of moving in sync with tech stocks again.
For now, the China summit seems to have taken some immediate pressure off the Middle East situation—but given how quickly headlines can shift, that calm could be short-lived.
So, the real question is: does this rally have legs, or is it just another headline-driven bounce?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Right out of the gate, stocks came out strong, with the major indexes moving into rally mode.
Tech led the charge, helped along by some upbeat headlines coming out of China that kept the mood positive.
The overall tone stayed constructive throughout the day, though not everything joined the party. Metals cooled off a bit after their recent run, while Bitcoin stepped in and caught a bid, riding the broader risk-on wave.
Our TTIs were in sync with the upside moves, but they didn’t quite keep pace with the stronger push we saw in the major indexes.
This is how we closed 05/14/2026:
Domestic TTI: +5.69% above its M/A (prior close +5.31%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +10.23% above its M/A (prior close +10.00%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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