- Moving the market
The major indexes opened lower as tensions between the U.S. and Iran heated up over the weekend, but traders are still holding onto hope that the two sides will eventually reach some kind of compromise.
President Trump announced on Sunday that the U.S. had seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, and he once again threatened to blow up Iran’s power plants and bridges if no deal is reached. The current ceasefire is set to expire this week.
By the end of the session, oil prices were higher while stocks finished only modestly lower.
Small caps were the clear winner thanks to another strong short squeeze, while the Nasdaq lagged. The Mag 7, which had outperformed recently, pulled back and underperformed the rest of the S&P 493 today.
Bond yields opened higher but ended unchanged, rate-cut expectations improved slightly, the dollar chopped around, and gold finished a bit in the red. Bitcoin slid over the weekend but made a strong comeback and climbed back above $76K.
At this point, price momentum and solid earnings are helping offset the geopolitical disappointments. But if the peace narrative starts to look fragile or falls apart, the market could follow suit quickly.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The day got off to a pretty lackluster start with no real spark to get positive sentiment going.
The major indexes mostly just treaded water all session, and the tech sector went nowhere in particular.
On a brighter note, the broader market showed some bullish signs — our Domestic TTI posted a decent gain, while the international one slipped and closed moderately in the red.
This is how we closed 04/20/2026:
Domestic TTI: +6.67% above its M/A (prior close +6.33%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.51% above its M/A (prior close +8.74%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
———————————————————-
WOULD YOU LIKE TO HAVE YOUR INVESTMENTS PROFESSIONALLY MANAGED?
Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.
Contact Ulli