- Moving the market
Stocks jumped at the open after reports that the U.S. had delivered a 15-point peace plan to Iran aimed at ending the conflict.
The news, first reported by The New York Times and later confirmed by the Associated Press via Pakistani officials, sent crude prices tumbling.
West Texas Intermediate fell 3% to around $88 a barrel, and Brent dropped 3% to about $100. Bond yields also eased lower on the prospect of reduced geopolitical risk.
That said, the two sides still appear far apart, and attacks have continued. The Wall Street Journal noted that the U.S. is deploying the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, and President Trump said Tuesday that Iran is “talking sense” and seems eager for a deal.
Oil and interest rates continue to be the main drivers for equities right now.
The markets held onto a positive tone throughout the session but came off their early highs after macro data offered little extra support.
All the major indexes finished in the green, with small caps being the modest outperformer.
Gold bounced off its 200-day moving average and tested $4,600 before fading, while Bitcoin tested $72K and then retreated to $71K. The dollar dropped early but recovered later.
With stocks bouncing on peace-plan headlines and oil pulling back, does this feel like the market is shaking off recent weakness and gearing up for more upside… or will the next round of jawboning and tit-for-tat quickly overpower today’s bullish attempt?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The major indexes got off to a sharp early bounce, starting the day with a noticeably positive mindset.
That upbeat tone carried through most of the session, though sentiment softened a bit toward the end.
We still closed with moderate gains across the board—nothing spectacular, but definitely a step in the right direction.
Gold and silver finally showed some real shine, both advancing around 3% and giving the metals complex a nice lift.
Our TTIs joined the rebound as well. The international one outperformed, gaining more than twice as much as the domestic TTI.
This is how we closed 03/25/2026:
Domestic TTI: +1.24% above its M/A (prior close +0.76%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +4.24% above its M/A (prior close +3.24%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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