- Moving the market
Stocks kicked off on a positive note and kept the upward momentum rolling most of the day, led by gains in tech heavyweights.
Nvidia rose about 1% heading into its big earnings report after the bell (alongside Salesforce and Snowflake), as traders recalibrate those sky-high valuations and get a bit skeptical on how much bang they’re getting from hyperscalers’ massive AI capex spending.
Oracle jumped 3% to lead the software bounce after an upgrade from Oppenheimer, who called the risk-reward “favorable” following the recent pullback. That helped lift the broader tech and AI space for a second straight day.
Elsewhere, macro, and geopolitical noise stayed in the background: Trump’s State of the Union last night talked up the economy, proposed government-backed retirement accounts for workers, and repeated his call to ban big institutional investors from buying single-family homes.
The weekend tariff threat (hiking to 15% globally) turned into a 10% duty on Tuesday, but markets mostly shrugged it off.
The rally was broad-ish, with mega-cap tech surging again and financials joining in. An early short squeeze lost steam by afternoon, but the major indexes held on for a green close.
Bond yields rose modestly (rate-cut expectations slipped a touch), the dollar wobbled lower, and precious metals stayed strong: gold rallied back to $2,500 but couldn’t hold it (thanks to CME “technical difficulties“), while silver still topped $91.
Bitcoin was on fire, up over 11% in the last couple of days.
All eyes are now on Nvidia’s earnings after the close—traders are laser-focused on directional commentary and any visibility into 2027.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The bulls took the reins right from the opening bell and kept the positive momentum rolling all session long—no real hiccups, just steady buying that carried us to a solid green close.
The Nasdaq led the pack with the strongest gains, while the Dow and small caps trailed a bit.
Our TTIs were along for the ride too. The international one put in a solid advance, while the domestic one mostly treaded water.
Still, both are comfortably parked on the bullish side of their long-term trend lines, so the overall outlook stays positive.
This is how we closed 02/25/2026:
Domestic TTI: +8.15% above its M/A (prior close +8.09%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +12.63% above its M/A (prior close +11.90%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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