- Moving the market
The major indexes opened sharply lower as President Trump ramped up his tariff rhetoric again, responding to the Supreme Court’s strike-down of his “reciprocal” tariffs.
In a Monday post, he warned that any country “playing games” with the ruling—especially those that have “ripped off” the U.S. for years—would face much higher tariffs than previously agreed.
He also said duties would start immediately (though it’s unclear if official documents have been signed) and more levies are coming over the next few months.
That fresh uncertainty triggered a clear risk-off mood, reversing some of last week’s biggest winners. The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all took an early hit and stayed under pressure for most of the day, with tech and growth names feeling the pain.
Gold prices surged on the renewed trade and inflation worries—spot gold up about 2%, futures nearly 3%—while silver rallied solidly +5.1%.
Bond yields dropped (10-year to its lowest since Thanksgiving), but that didn’t help equities much. The dollar ended flat, and Bitcoin had no spark, sinking to $65K—its lowest since early February.
Wall Street is now bracing for a busy week: Trump’s State of the Union address tomorrow, Nvidia earnings Wednesday, and Friday’s PPI data that could shift the policy outlook.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The bullish mood was completely missing in action this morning and never showed up all day.
Bears took full control early and drove the major indexes deep into the red—no real bounce, just steady selling pressure from open to close.
The one bright spot that kept our portfolios from looking ugly? Gold and silver delivered solid gains and basically saved the day, letting us close on a positive note overall despite the equity weakness.
Our TTIs couldn’t escape the downdraft either—they slipped lower, with the domestic one taking the bigger hit compared to the international.
This is how we closed 02/23/2026:
Domestic TTI: +7.23% above its M/A (prior close +8.42%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +11.44% above its M/A (prior close +11.80%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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