[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Today’s market felt like a tug-of-war with no clear winner. Early optimism around AI helped keep the S&P 500 on steady footing, while chip names such as Micron, Nvidia, and Broadcom benefited from continued enthusiasm for the AI story.
But as the day wore on, rising oil prices and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions grabbed traders’ attention. Higher oil prices nudged bond yields higher, and that was enough to take some of the wind out of the market’s sails by the close.
The bigger picture remains a bit of a mixed bag. Softer retail sales and tame inflation have eased fears of near-term Fed tightening, but geopolitical headlines are keeping traders on their toes.
Gold climbed back above $4,400, the dollar slipped slightly, and Bitcoin decided to throw its own party, jumping above $64,500 for reasons known only to Bitcoin.
With Fed minutes due Wednesday and retail earnings on deck, investors may not get many major catalysts this week, but they certainly won’t be lacking for headlines.
The question is: will AI enthusiasm keep outweighing geopolitical worries, or are we in for a few more choppy sessions before the market finds its footing?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
Today’s action felt a bit like a party that never really got started.
A weak open failed to entice the dip buyers, and with enthusiasm in short supply, the major indexes drifted lower and finished the day in the red.
One bright spot was the metals sector. Silver led the charge, climbing nearly 2% and reminding investors that sometimes the shiny objects really do deserve the attention.
Our TTIs stayed in step with the broader market and gave back a portion of their recent gains.
Nothing dramatic, just a gentle reminder that markets occasionally like to take a breather, even when we’d rather they didn’t.
This is how we closed 08/17/2026:
Domestic TTI: +9.68% above its M/A (prior close +10.67%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +7.95% above its M/A (prior close +8.54%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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