- Moving the market
After a brief early bounce, the major indexes resumed their downward trend from yesterday. The S&P 500 made two attempts to reclaim its unchanged line but ultimately failed to hold on.
In a post, Trump announced that additional tariffs of 25% on Canada and Mexico would take effect on Wednesday, targeting steel and aluminum. When asked about a potential recession, he described the economy as going through a “period of transition.”
Traders were spooked, escalating fears of an economic recession, which would negatively impact equities. Consequently, Citigroup downgraded its rating on U.S. stocks from overweight to neutral.
Delta Airlines also slashed its earnings outlook due to weaker demand, causing their stock to drop by about 5%, further contributing to negative market sentiment.
An afternoon rebound helped equities recover from their worst levels, but the session still ended with a moderate decline.
Bond yields edged higher, the dollar slipped, while Bitcoin surged from yesterday’s $76k level to $83k today. Gold also rallied, reclaiming the $2,900 mark.
The markets remain on edge, teetering between further breakdown and recovery. Much will depend on the latest tariff headlines from Washington.
2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)
Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.
If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
As the session began, new tariff announcements dampened market sentiment, pushing it into bearish territory. The S&P 500 made two rebound attempts before finally crossing its unchanged line to the upside, but momentum faded by the close.
Our domestic TTI has now declined for the second consecutive day. I will allow it some more time below its trend line before concluding that this Buy cycle is over.
In my advisory practice, I have already removed the more volatile holdings. Therefore, when the final “Sell” signal is confirmed, there will be minimal liquidation required in terms of portfolio percentage.
This is how we closed 03/11/2025:
Domestic TTI: -1.95% below its M/A (prior close -0.62%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
International TTI: +3.52% above its M/A (prior close +4.68%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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