Gold And Bitcoin Rebound, Oil Surges Amidst Market Uncertainty Ahead Of CPI Release And Fed’s Rate Verdict

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of]

  1. Moving the markets

With the much-anticipated jobs report out of the way, but Wall Street still pondering its implications, the new focus is on the Fed’s interest rate decision and last month’s inflation data.

Both are due out Wednesday with the CPI potentially being a crucial point for market direction. Especially, after Friday’s allegedly strong jobs report, the Fed might continue its present policy of “higher for longer” and not cave in to Wall Street’s relentless hopes of lower rates.

Elsewhere, traders were also watching for any earthshaking new announcements from Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference, as to any market impacting software products. In the end, their AI message was a somewhat of a disappointment, which was reflected in their stock back peddling.

After overcoming an initial drop, the major indexes recovered and scored moderate gains across the board, despite the wild ride Small Caps participated in. The MAG7 group went sideways, bond yields crept higher, and the dollar bounced and trounced but closed up.   

Gold found a bottom and rebounded, Bitcoin rallied to $70k but pulled back, while crude oil built on recent bullish sentiment and added over 3% but fell just short of reaching $78.

Another divergence could signal trouble for the markets, as ZH pointed out, when looking at the S&P 500, namely the Cap-weighted vs. the Equal-weighted version. This is the largest gap since the peak in 2008/09.   

Hmm. How long can this last?

2. Current “Buy” Cycles (effective 11/21/2023)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) have both crossed their trend lines with enough strength to trigger new “Buy” signals. That means, Tuesday, 11/21/2023, was the official date for these signals.

If you want to follow our strategy, you should first decide how much you want to invest based on your risk tolerance (percentage of allocation). Then, you should check my Thursday StatSheet and Saturday’s “ETFs on the Cutline” report for suitable ETFs to buy.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

The major indexes saw some early weakness, but underlying bullish sentiment prevailed, and we closed on a positive note.

Our TTIs were mixed with the domestic one advancing and the international one pulling back slightly.

This is how we closed 06/10/2024:

Domestic TTI: +6.49% above its M/A (prior close +6.21%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.

International TTI: +8.16% above its M/A (prior close +8.34%)—Buy signal effective 11/21/2023.

All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.



Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly to get more details.

Contact Ulli

Leave a Reply