[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
Markets spent most of the day waiting for clarity on the Iran situation and, unfortunately, clarity never showed up for work.
Growing doubts about a near-term U.S.-Iran breakthrough kept investors cautious, while higher oil prices took center stage. With WTI crude jumping about 5% to $82, bond yields moved higher and risk appetite cooled.
The major indexes drifted lower as the recent short-covering rally appeared to run out of fuel.
Meanwhile, precious metals continued to attract attention. Gold pushed back above $4,350 despite a stronger dollar, while silver stole the spotlight with a gain of more than 3%.
Bitcoin was the outlier, slipping modestly below $64,000.
In the end, it felt like one of those market days where everyone was waiting for the next headline, and nobody wanted to make the first big move.
Until a new catalyst emerges, we may be stuck in a holding pattern.
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
After a mixed start, the major indexes spent the day changing their minds before finishing modestly lower.
The metals took a similar ride, but some late buying showed up, with silver leading gold and copper into the closing bell.
Our TTIs mostly watched the action from the sidelines, drifting sideways and finishing essentially unchanged. Not every day delivers fireworks.
Sometimes the market’s biggest accomplishment is finding new ways to go nowhere.
This is how we closed 08/10/2026:
Domestic TTI: +9.93% above its M/A (prior close +9.86%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +8.59% above its M/A (prior close +8.67%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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