ETF Tracker Newsletter For June 19, 2020

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

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  1. Moving the markets

Even though the futures markets jumped supported by trade deal optimism, as China showed willingness to step up purchases of US farm goods to comply with the phase one trade agreement. Traders, however, quickly dismissed the story as being laughable.

As a result, a slow and steady descent took the major indexes back into the red, and they bounced along their respective unchanged lines for the remainder of the session ending up with modest losses. The exception again was the Nasdaq, which eked out a tiny gain.

Not helping the bulls and contributing to the decline were several news reports. First, Apple Computers announced that it will be re-closing 11 of their stores in various states due to rising cases of coronavirus.

Not to be outdone, the World Health Organization (WHO) said the virus has entered a “new and dangerous phase,” which caused concern about the widely but wrongly assumed V-shape economic rebound.

Despite these negatives, today’s quadruple options expirations had no measurable market effect with the S&P 500 still squeezing out +1.88% for the week.

ZH summarized the week like this:

Well that was a week of worrisome headlines (from World War 3 to global COVID re-awakenings), awe-inspiring US macro-economic beats (which lose all context in relation to the collapse) as earnings outlooks remain just “off the lows”, and a stock market that refuses to go down despite bonds, the dollar, and commodities all signaling anything but strong growth ahead…

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) slipped at tad, but the Domestic one still hovers in the neutral zone keeping our investments intact. However, I break-out will occur, the only question is “will it be to the upside or downside?”

There’s a good chance that we will find out next week.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features some of the 10 broadly diversified domestic and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which these ETFs are fluctuating above or below their respective individual trend lines (%+/-M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

For this new domestic “Buy” cycle, which was effective 6/4/2020, here’s how some our candidates have fared:

Click image to enlarge

Again, the %+/-M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long-term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -8% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column. For more volatile sector ETFs, the trigger point is -10%.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our TTIs barely slipped with the Domestic one still being stuck in the neutral zone.

This is how we closed 06/19/2020:

Domestic TTI: -1.04% below its M/A (prior close -0.03%)—Buy signal effective 06/04/2020

International TTI: -3.33% below its M/A (prior close -2.89%)—Sell signal effective 02/26/2020

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the specified guidelines.



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