ETF Tracker Newsletter For November 16, 2018

Ulli ETF Tracker Contact

ETF Tracker StatSheet

A Down Week Ends On A Positive Note

[Chart courtesy of]
  1. Moving the markets

The major indexes see-sawed throughout the session swinging above and below their respective unchanged lines but closing in the green in the end. The exception being the Nasdaq, which ended up slightly in the red but much improved from earlier levels. The cause was yesterday’s terrible earnings and poor guidance report by chip firms like Nvidia that dragged down the entire tech sector. More amazing is the fact how a stock from being up 50% YTD, can collapse to down -15% in a matter of a few weeks.

Helping upside momentum were dovish comments by the Fed’s Clarida, followed by remarks from Trump that he may not impose more tariffs on China and viewed “a list of things that China is willing to do” as positive step. This chart shows the impact these announcements had on market direction.

Lower yields helped bond investors, as the 10-year yield settled down 4 basis points to 3.07%, which is quite a drop from the 3.24% we saw not too long ago. The chart looks like we are in a topping pattern, which could indicate even lower yields ahead.

Regarding our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs), we are lurking on the sidelines waiting for a bullish signal (see section 3), also known as the year-end rally. However, if you look at the credit market index, it appears that the bears look to have the upper hand.

As always, there are many contradicting indicators, which is why I think it’s best not to get involved, unless the major trend resumes its bullish path.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating regarding their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how our candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long-term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -8% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column. For more volatile sector ETFs, the trigger point is -10%.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) again improved slightly but are stuck on the bearish side of their respective trend lines.

Here’s how we closed 11/16/2018:

Domestic TTI: -1.06% below its M/A (last close -1.35%)—Sell signal effective 11/15/2018

International TTI: -3.82% below its M/A (last close -4.37%)—Sell signal effective 10/11/2018

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



All Reader Q & A’s are listed at our web site!
Check it out at:



Do you have the time to follow our investment plans yourself? If you are a busy professional who would like to have his portfolio managed using our methodology, please contact me directly or get more details at:


Back issues of the ETF/No Load Fund Tracker are available on the web at:

Contact Ulli

Leave a Reply