ETF Tracker Newsletter For September 29, 2017

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  1. Moving the Markets

Equities closed out the week, month and quarter on a positive note with the S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 2000 ending not only at their highs of the session but also setting new records in the process. In terms of milestones for 2017, it’s noteworthy that the S&P 500 closed at a record for the 39th time this year, while the Nasdaq topped that number by notching 50 record closing highs. Most of the buying was based on the fact that Trump finally announced his long-awaited tax reform plan and that some of it might finally be implemented, although it’s unclear as to how much of this is based on relief rather than political reality.

Despite a slow start, our ETF holdings picked up steam late in the session with all of them closing solidly in the green. Emerging Markets (SCHE) took top billing, after a couple of slow days, with a gain of +1.13%, which was followed by the high flying Semiconductors (SMH) with +0.93%. The low man on the totem pole was the Dividend ETF (SCHD), which managed to eke out +0.06%.

Interest rates rose with the 10-year bond yield gaining 2 basis points to end the day at 2.33%. We saw sliding interest rates during July and August (hitting a low of 2.05%), but September proved to be a reversal month with rates ascending. Investors in the 20-year bond (TLT) saw losses pile up as “risk was on” and equities were the place to be.

The US dollar (UUP) had a good week by adding about 1%, which was its biggest weekly gain since last December; it was higher for the month as well but only by a fraction of a percent. The intermediate trend is up, but the long-term trend remains down.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight (updated for 2017)

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the 2017 candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) are confirming the current bullish environment as the major trends remain up.

Here’s how we closed 9/29/2017:

Domestic TTI: +2.74% (last close +2.77%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +6.71% (last close +6.58%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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