ETF Tracker Newsletter For March 3, 2017

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Clawing Back Above The Line

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  1. Moving the Markets

As we all know, you never get a straight answer from the Fed in regards to interest rates. Today was no exception as Fed head Yellen signaled that they are set raise rates this month, but they kept their options open via: “if employment and other economic data hold up.” Wall Street took that as an affirmative and rate hike odds ended up in the 95% area.

She added that “rates are likely to rise faster this year as the economy appears clear of any imminent hurdles at home or abroad for the first time in her tenure.” That is strange, because I see and have reported on weakening and not strengthening hard economic data points and simply can’t see a justification for a rate hike other than the Fed having cried “wolf” too many times.

Benefiting from higher rates are financial stocks, which were up +0.4%, while real estate was the worst performer with -0.4%. Interest rates were higher with the 30-year yield touching the 3.15% level twice before pulling back.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq closed out their 6th straight week of gains despite Thursday’s sell-off. As we have become accustomed to, the markets were down for most of the day, but thanks to the well-known last hour end-of-day acrobatics, the indexes were pushed above the unchanged line.

  1. ETFs in the Spotlight (updated for 2017)

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified and sector ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Saturday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

The below table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the 2017 candidates have fared so far:

Again, the %M/A column above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines, while the trailing sell stops are being tracked in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) slipped despite the major indexes closing up.

Here’s how we closed 3/3/2017:

Domestic TTI: +2.88% (last close +2.95%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +5.53% (last close +5.58%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.



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