US Oil Throws An Assist

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

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[Chart courtesy of]

1. Moving the Markets

It was a roller coaster kind of day with the markets dropping out of the gate, regaining upside momentum, falling again below the unchanged line before staging a mid-day comeback, which accelerated into the close.

Wall Street is still digesting the possibility of a rate hike in September. It’s the same old story with the Fed keeping markets at bay and under control. Personally, I think there is absolutely no way to justify higher rates based on economic fundamentals with most data points, along with GDP, heading south. However, if the Fed is concerned with the lofty levels of the major averages, they might pull the trigger on a tiny rate hike just to keep the market from moving deeper into bubble territory. I am not sure if that is a consideration, but the fact is the Fed trapped with none of their options looking particularly enticing.

Oil was the lead dog again as it continued its rally for the 6th day on no news of any shortage. On the corporate side, the mother of all hogs (Harley-Davidson) got spanked today (-1.73%) and agreed to a $12 million fine for selling illegal after-market tuners, which caused excessive motorcycle pollution.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:


The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:

YTDAgain, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs) headed north as US oil helped to support a strong move into the close.

Here’s how we ended 8/18/2016:

Domestic TTI: +3.18% (last close +3.02%)—Buy signal effective 4/4/2016

International TTI: +5.12% (last close +4.67%)—Buy signal effective 7/19/2016

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as my advisory clients, own some of the ETFs listed in the above table. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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