ETF Tracker StatSheet
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RISK-OFF FRIDAY: MARKETS WORRY ABOUT GROWTH, NOT AI
[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]
- Moving the market
This morning, the market felt a bit like a crowded theater where someone yelled “fire” and everyone headed for the same exit at once.
The Dow was down nearly 700 points early on as concerns over rising oil prices, higher rates, and renewed Middle East tensions spilled well beyond the tech sector.
The Magnificent 7 offered little support, with investors shifting their focus from AI enthusiasm to inflation and energy concerns.
Even the usual defensive hiding spots weren’t much help, as consumer staples, utilities, and healthcare stocks all joined the retreat.
Meanwhile, oil climbed above $100, gold surprisingly lost its shine, and Bitcoin reminded everyone that volatility is still part of the admission price.
One bright spot: bond yields eased enough this week to remind investors why bonds still belong in a diversified portfolio.
The bigger question now is whether falling global yields are signaling a genuine growth scare ahead, or simply a market catching its breath after a long run higher.
Are traders getting an early warning about slowing growth, or is this just another case of the market overreacting before the weekend?
2. Current domestic “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/20/2025); International “Buy” Cycle (effective 5/8/25)
Our domestic bullish cycle that began on November 21, 2023, concluded on April 3, 2025, following a market downturn triggered by President Trump’s tariff policy announcement.
This development caused significant declines across major indexes and broader market indices. However, markets subsequently rebounded, culminating in a new domestic “Buy” signal taking effect May 20, 2025.
Concurrently, our International Trend Tracking Index (TTI) experienced parallel volatility. On April 4, 2025, it breached critical thresholds, prompting a “Sell” recommendation. This position reversed as global markets recovered, with the International TTI regaining sufficient momentum to issue a new “Buy” signal effective May 8, 2025.
3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)
The market kept playing musical chairs this week, with leadership rotating so fast you’d think the sectors were trading seats at a wedding reception.
The Dow took the biggest hit, followed by the Nasdaq, although for the week the Dow was the only major index that managed to finish in positive territory.
Meanwhile, metals continued to drift lower, seemingly unimpressed by the ongoing barrage of headlines and uncertainty.
Our TTIs eased back today but still finished higher for the week, keeping the bigger picture firmly bullish.
A little short-term wobble is normal. Even healthy uptrends like to catch their breath once in a while.
This is how we closed 10/23/2026:
Domestic TTI: +4.79% above its M/A (prior close +5.87%)—Buy signal effective 5/20/25.
International TTI: +3.16% above its M/A (prior close +3.88%)—Buy signal effective 5/8/25.
All linked charts above are courtesy of Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.
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