Dow Is Only Index To Stay Above Water In February

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

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[Chart courtesy of]

1. Moving the Markets

U.S. stocks ended February on a sour note as oil prices rose and “the” meeting of G20 finance officials ended without pledges for joint action to stimulate sagging global economic growth. As I mentioned on Friday, chances are great that useless jawboning without concrete results or resolutions is as good as it gets.

The weak end to February resulted in a mixed bag in terms of the performance of the three big U.S. stock indexes. The Dow did the best for the month, rising 0.3%. The S&P was next, down 0.4%. The Nasdaq brought up the rear, falling 1.2% for February.

Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 of the world’s biggest economies said they would use “all tools” at their disposal to bolster weak global growth at a meeting in Shanghai on Saturday. They also vowed not devalue their currencies to boost exports. Sure, I won’t hold my breath for that one.

Again, most of February’s rally was short covering, which turned out to be longest uninterrupted cover streak in some 2 years. We’ll now have to wait and see if this rebound off the February lows actually has legs or if we’re close to heading back south. The latter would be my best guess for the day.

2. ETFs in the Spotlight

In case you missed the announcement and description of this section, you can read it here again.

It features 10 broadly diversified ETFs from my HighVolume list as posted every Monday. Furthermore, they are screened for the lowest MaxDD% number meaning they have been showing better resistance to temporary sell offs than all others over the past year.

Here are the 10 candidates:


The above table simply demonstrates the magnitude with which some of the ETFs are fluctuating in regards to their positions above or below their respective individual trend lines (%M/A). A break below, represented by a negative number, shows weakness, while a break above, represented by a positive percentage, shows strength.

For hundreds of ETF/Mutual fund choices, be sure to reference Thursday’s StatSheet.

Year to date, here’s how the above candidates have fared so far:


Again, the first table above shows the position of the various ETFs in relation to their respective long term trend lines (%M/A), while the second one tracks their trailing sell stops in the “Off High” column. The “Action” column will signal a “Sell” once the -7.5% point has been taken out in the “Off High” column.

3. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

Our Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI) declined and settled deeper into bear market territory this last day of February.

Here’s how we ended up:

Domestic TTI: -1.54% (last close -1.27%)—Sell signal effective 11/13/2015

International TTI: -8.41% (last close -7.93%)—Sell signal effective 8/21/2015

Disclosure: I am obliged to inform you that I, as well as advisory clients of mine, own some of these listed ETFs. Furthermore, they do not represent a specific investment recommendation for you, they merely show which ETFs from the universe I track are falling within the guidelines specified.

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