ETF Tracker Newsletter For October 30, 2026

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ETF Tracker StatSheet          

You can view the latest version here.

RISK-OFF FRIDAY: TECH, CRYPTO, AND METALS HEAD SOUTH TOGETHER

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

If October taught investors anything, it’s that markets eventually start asking for the receipt. After two years of AI-driven enthusiasm, Friday felt like a reality check as investors rotated out of the high-flying AI names and into more defensive corners of the market.

The Nasdaq led the way lower as disappointing reports from Amazon, Intel, and several chip-related names raised fresh questions about the pace and profitability of AI spending.

Meanwhile, a massive crypto exchange hack added to the risk-off mood, pushing Bitcoin lower and dragging metals down right alongside it.

Even the “Magnificent 7” had a rough month, while the other 493 companies in the S&P quietly held their ground, a reminder that the market isn’t always telling the same story beneath the surface.

Bond yields finally caught a bid, oil kept climbing, and October closed with plenty of investors wondering whether the AI trade has merely hit a speed bump or if it’s entering a longer period of digestion.

With the midterm-election tailwind now the next hopeful narrative, the question is: will history come to the rescue, or is the market asking for a little more proof before handing out rewards again?

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 10/29/2026

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ETF Data updated through Thursday, October 29, 2026

How to use this StatSheet:

  1. Out of the 1,800+ ETFs out there, I only pick the ones that trade over $5 million per day (HV ETFs), so you don’t get stuck with a lemon that nobody wants to buy or sell.
  1. Trend Tracking Indexes (TTIs)

These are the main indicators that tell you when to buy or sell Domestic and International ETFs (section 1 and 2). They do that by comparing their position to their long-term M/A (Moving Average). If they cross above, and stay there, it’s a green light to buy. If they fall below, and keep going, it’s a red light to sell. And to make sure you don’t lose your shirt if things go south, I also use a 12% trailing stop loss on all positions in these categories.

  1. All other investment areas don’t have a TTI and should be traded based on the position of each ETF relative to its own trend line (%M/A). That’s why I call them “Selective Buy.” In other words, if an ETF goes above its own trend line, you can buy it. But don’t forget to use a trailing sell stop of 12%, or less if you’re feeling nervous.

If some of these words sound like Greek to you, please check out the Glossary of Terms and new subscriber information in section 9.

  1. DOMESTIC EQUITY ETFs: BUY— effective 5/20/2025

Click on chart to enlarge

This is our main compass, the Domestic Trend Tracking Index (TTI-green line in the above chart). It has broken above its long-term trend line (red) by +6.48% and remains in “Buy” mode, with our holdings being subject to our trailing sell stops.

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A Tough Day For Tech: When Good Earnings Just Aren’t Good Enough

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks spent most of the day on the defensive as traders worked through another round of earnings surprises.

The biggest headline came from Alphabet, which suffered its worst one-day decline on record after falling short of expectations, dragging the Nasdaq down more than 1% and reminding investors that even tech giants aren’t immune to high expectations.

Caterpillar added to the cautious tone. Despite posting solid earnings, a slight miss in construction equipment sales was enough to send shares sharply lower.

Microsoft’s results were good on the surface, but investors seemed more interested in finding reasons to sell than reasons to celebrate, especially as questions around the AI trade continue to linger.

Meanwhile, the Fed pressed the pause button on rates and signaled it’s still waiting for more data before making its next move.

Bond yields, the dollar, gold, and Bitcoin all took traders on a bit of a rollercoaster ride, only to finish not far from where they started. Sometimes the market’s version of cardio is running in circles.

The message from today’s action was pretty clear: uncertainty remains high, volatility isn’t ready to leave the party, and traders are still searching for the next catalyst.

The question is, are we seeing a healthy reset in expectations, or just the beginning of a more challenging stretch for markets?

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Markets Stay Calm Ahead Of Megatech Earnings: Quiet Before The Storm?

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Markets spent most of the day in a holding pattern as investors waited for the Fed’s latest rate decision and a fresh round of earnings from the tech heavyweights.

As expected, the Fed left rates unchanged, and with no surprises from the central bank, the major indexes managed to post modest gains.

The real action was beneath the surface. Chip stocks continued to attract buyers, oil jumped roughly 2.5% after a larger-than-expected drawdown in crude inventories, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 5%, reminding investors that the bond market still has a mind of its own.

Meanwhile, the Magnificent Seven took a breather ahead of earnings, trailing the broader market.

Elsewhere, the dollar softened, gold recovered from an early dip, and Bitcoin notched a respectable gain.

Now the spotlight shifts to Alphabet and Microsoft. After all, when two report cards carry that much weight, tomorrow’s market could look very different from today’s.

Will earnings finally wake volatility from its afternoon nap?

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Risk-On Mood Returns As Oil Slides And Tech Takes Charge

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks came into the day with a healthy appetite for risk, led once again by the chipmakers.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained ground early and held onto those advances as investors continued piling into AI-related names.

Broadcom was a standout, rising more than 3% after financing details emerged around Anthropic’s technology deal, keeping the AI story firmly in the driver’s seat.

Outside of equities, lower oil prices helped the mood, while bond yields were little changed with the 10-year hovering just below 5% as investors await tomorrow’s Fed decision.

The expectation remains that the Fed will stand pat, although the market is still pricing in a meaningful chance of one more hike before the year is over.

Meanwhile, gold bounced sharply from its recent support level and Bitcoin found buyers near $80,000, suggesting investors weren’t afraid to add a little risk while keeping one foot near the exits.

All in all, it was a broad-based “risk-on” day, but with the Fed up next, was this the start of another leg higher or just a well-dressed waiting game?

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AI Trade Gets A Pulse Check As Anthropic Sparks Tech Rally

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

  1. Moving the market

Stocks came out of the gate strong today, led by a rebound in semiconductors and AI-related names after Anthropic’s IPO filing reignited some enthusiasm for the AI trade.

Frankly, the market seemed to need a fresh AI story, much like it needed SpaceX before it. Investors have been talking about this one for ages, and now they finally have something tangible to get excited about.

The filing helped ease concerns that AI spending may be peaking, giving tech a much-needed boost after a rough stretch that left semiconductors deep in correction territory.

Meanwhile, lower oil prices added a tailwind for equities, although crude remains elevated as geopolitical risks haven’t exactly packed their bags.

Elsewhere, bond yields were mixed, silver and Bitcoin lost a little shine, and Brazil reminded investors that politics and markets can be a cruel combination, with some stocks getting absolutely clobbered following the surprise election outcome.

With the Fed decision arriving Wednesday and a likely pause already priced in, the big question is: can today’s AI-fueled optimism turn into something more durable, or was this just a well-timed shot of caffeine for the market?

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