7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 1/24/2012

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The markets picked up a little upward momentum since last week’s issue with the S&P 500 gaining about 1.5%. The seven ETF Model Portfolios increased in value as well.

All eyes continue to focus on Greece and whether a suitable haircut with bond holders can be worked out. Looks to me that Greece is finally playing hardball as the possibility of a default looms large.

Closer to home, traders will be focusing on the Fed and its FOMC rate decision, which is to be released tomorrow. No changes are expected.

Take a look at the latest ETF Model Portfolio update:

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Still No Breakout or Breakdown for Major Market ETFs

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Major market ETFs hovered near the zero mark once again as Greece remains in a deadlock with its creditors. The S&P 500 marginally dipped 0.10% while European indices were down as well.

Also, the Euro stood still at $1.30/Euro while the 10-year Treasury was virtually unchanged at 2.06%. Overall, the last couple weeks have presented an entry point to gain selective equity ETF exposure but markets haven’t moved significantly since.

While Eurozone risks still guide our low risk strategy, other investors seem to be regaining some of their appetite. The VIX has now broken under 20, showing that volatility has substantially subsided in the last month. Nevertheless, the grander picture of a strained global economy suggests market volatility can ramp back up.

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Flat Performance for ETFs Amidst Greek Uncertainty

Ulli Market Review Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

As we wait for a resolution between Greece and its bondholders, markets stood flat as the S&P 500 chimed in a meager 0.05%. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury climbed to a yield of 2.07%, indicating that investors are less risk averse than they have been in recent weeks.

For the first time in over two weeks, the Euro has broken above the $1.30/Euro level. However, a negative outcome in Greece can quickly send the Euro back down.

As crunch time approaches in Greece, European leaders and the IMF among others are putting pressure on bondholders to accept a haircut. Lest we forget, even a 50% haircut would only reduce Greece’s debt-to-GDP to 120%, which is still unsustainable. A restructuring deal will only delay the likely inevitable default.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 1/20/2012

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 264 (last week 214) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 45 ETFs (last week 33) have managed to move into in bullish territory after the recent run.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 603 (last week 448) above the line and 258 below it out of the 861 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 1/22/2012

Ulli ETF News Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 1/22/2012.

The markets inched higher apparently following the mantra that, if globally things look poorly from an economic standpoint, and there is a wall of worry, it can be climbed.

While it’s nice to see less volatility than we’ve witnessed in 2011, it remains to be seen how long this condition will last and if or for how long the U.S. market can stay decoupled from international events.

This week, we covered the following:

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Despite This Week’s Bullishness, Risk Hasn’t Faded Away

Ulli Market Review Contact

Markets performed quite well this week across the globe, but let’s not get our hopes up so high. European fundamentals still haven’t markedly changed while Greece’s fate is still in the hands of its bondholders. In other words, don’t jump full on into equity ETFs.

This week’s video from Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer highlights some of the risks plaguing the global financial system. Not only is Europe stagnating, but China’s growth is slowing down, revealing the extent of the global recession. With China already in a currency war with the U.S. that will only get messier as China’s exports slow down, the eco-political tension will surely heighten.

Furthermore, the general process of deleveraging in Europe and the U.S. continues to have a negative impact on the global economy. In addition to the uncertainty surrounding whether Greece will default, Dr. Doom believes other PIIGS members will have to restructure their debt. However, this would be an insurmountable task for Italy and Spain, who collectively account for nearly $4 trillion in debt.

With mounting economic challenges in Europe and China as well as Middle East instability for that matter, we are certainly in a risky market environment, which supports my view that an exit strategy for your investments is an absolute necessity.