ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, November 30, 2012

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2012/11/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-11292012/

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Market Commentary

Friday, November 30, 2012

MAJOR INDEXES END THE WEEK FLAT AND JUST ABOUT EVEN FOR THE MONTH; NASDAQ BUCKS THE TREND

The focus on the fiscal cliff continues to be the main concern on Wall Street, as the major indexes vacillated around the unchanged line but did not make much headway today or for the week.

It’s been simply choppy trading over the past 2 weeks as Wall Street hung on to every statement from the fiscal cliff negotiators hoping that some type of solution would be still forthcoming. Nevertheless, the S&P 500 recovered from its mid-November sell off, which took it down by some 6% from the high of the month to its low.

It’s amazing to me that the indexes have been this resilient and trading higher in the face of the on and off negotiations, along with declarations of stalemate, that are now featured headline news on an hourly basis.

It makes me wonder for how long the markets will be this patient before the bears gain the upper hand. After all, sooner or later we all want an answer to the lingering question “where is the beef?”

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 11/29/2012

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ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Wednesday, November 29, 2012

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +2.23% after having dipped slightly below it.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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Major Indexes Ride The Fiscal Cliff Roller Coaster; Funny Quote Of The Day

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

As I mentioned yesterday, increased market volatility is pretty much guaranteed to stay with us, and swings in either direction will depend on the latest announcements as to any progress in the fiscal cliff negotiations.

That’s what happened today, as the indexes yo-yo’d up and down depending on who was making a speech or giving the latest assessment.  Comments were conflicting, as was to be expected, with early market gains being wiped out and then re-gained later on in the session.

When all was said and done, today had turned into a risk-on day with the S&P 500 adding some 6 points while bonds and treasuries headed higher as well. The mood on Wall Street was slightly bullish, despite the choppiness, as worries about missing the rally superseded the fear of losing money. Hope is a powerful thing, as traders are supporting the view that “the fiscal cliff will be resolved eventually.”

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Fiscal Cliff Jawboning Reverses Triple Digit Sell Off

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Market volatility took on a new meaning today as the Dow rose 107 points after having slid way south to a loss of 112 points early on with all major indexes following suit in similar fashion.

To be clear, nothing was resolved in regards to the fiscal cliff issue, but much jawboning by Speaker John Boehner and President Obama threw an assist to the faltering markets and up we went for most of the day. And that’s how it will be for the next few weeks in that nothing matters but the comment of the hour by anyone who can get TV time.

“Remaing hopeful” or “being optimistic that we can continue to work together” is nothing but the same old rhetoric that makes for a nice photo op but has no content value other than that the markets feed on any hopeful comment with traders gaining optimism and moving into ‘risk on’ mode.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 11/27/2012

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More upside momentum pushed the S&P 500 up by some 0.7% since last week’s ETF portfolio report, although weakness set in yesterday as worries about any progress regarding fiscal cliff, or lack thereof, kept a lid on market advances.

I don’t believe that tangible results, no matter how inconsequential, will surface until the last possible moment or until the markets force the hand of the parties involved by staging a major sell off. It’s uncertainty at its finest, and it pays to play the next 5 weeks conservatively as anything is possible.

In the meantime, here’s the latest update to our ETF Model Portfolios:

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Equities Slip As Budget Worries Overshadow Alleged Greece Deal; Europe Rises

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[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Equity ETFs edged lower as rhetoric over progress on budget negotiations by Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid triggered a late sell off that eclipsed better than expected Economic data and an alleged European deal on Greece aid.

Investors mostly shrugged off strong reports on the US economy and positive developments in Europe. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20 city index gained for the sixth straight month in September, signaling the US housing market is in the midst of recovery.

Demand for durable goods remained flat in October, a Commerce Department report showed, defying expectations for a 0.7 percent decline. New orders for US non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft climbed 1.7 percent last month, the most in five months.

Separately, a Conference Board report revealed consumer confidence rose to the highest level in more than four years in November.

Equity indexes spent most of the day bouncing around the breakeven line after European finance ministers meeting in Brussels cut interest rates on Greece’s bailout loans, suspended interest payments for a decade, gave Athens more time to repay and agreed for the country to buy back its own bonds.

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