7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 1/22/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The theme remained the same in that the indexes continued their relentless march into higher territory with the S&P 500 adding another 1.4% since last week’s ETF Model Portfolio report.

It’s almost impossible to find a pullback in the indexes intraday in order to establish new positions. On a couple of occasions, I had maybe 15 minutes to place some trades as the S&P 500 was slipping by a meager 4 points before the late day “lift-a-thon” kicked in and pushed the benchmark back to green, since in this centrally planned environment, a red close must be avoided at all costs.

Such is the world we’re living in and, while this bull market will not last forever, it could go on for a while. There is simply no way of knowing, but if you do participate in this rampage, let me be the voice of reason and suggest that you work with a trailing sell stop on all of your positions as any unforeseen event could derail this current trend in no time.

Here’s the latest update for our Model ETF Portfolios:

Read More

The Relentless Equity March Continues; Europe Slips

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks gained Tuesday with the S&P 500 and the Dow finishing at fresh five-year highs amid better-than-expected quarterly results from corporations including insurer and Dow component Travelers Cos Inc.

Equity averages were briefly dented earlier, offering the only buying opportunity of the day, after a report from the National Association of Realtors showed US existing-home sales dipped one percent to a 4.94 million annual clip in December. The trade-group report followed a release from real-estate provider Zillow Inc., which showed US home prices rose 5.9 percent last year.

Meanwhile, House Republicans are set to vote Wednesday on raising the US debt limit through mid-May, a move the White House has welcomed ahead of the budget debate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) zoomed 62 points to its highest level since December 10. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) rose 7 points to 1493 with materials and financial fronting the gains and consumer staples the sole laggard among its 10 business groups.

Read More

ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 1/18/2013

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 1/18/2013

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 373 (last week 363) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 87 ETFs (last week 84) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 787 (last week 781) above the line and 72 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 1/20/2013

Ulli Market Review Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 1/20/2013.

Despite option expiration day last Friday, trading did not show much volatility for the first few days until the S&P 500 broke out to the upside and ended up gaining about 1% for the week.

The theme continued to be the same as intraday pullbacks were minor and afternoon lift-a-thons a given. We are now in a trading environment where it has almost become impossible to look for a pullback to add new positions as temporary ‘down periods’ last only minutes before the markets are being pushed up again.

Nothing goes up forever, and this market will not be an exception. We may very well be heading further into bubble territory, but reality has to to set in sooner or later.

If you are participating in this rally, be sure to have your exit strategy in place, because the exit doors will get crowded in a hurry once the rush starts. Again, while the timing of it is unknown, you need to be prepared.

Over past week, we covered the following:

Read More

One Man’s Opinion: Will Fiscal Tightening Cause A Recession In 2013?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Fiscal tightening won’t cause a recession in 2013, says Michael Darda, chief economist and chief market strategist at MKM Partners. The latest unemployment benefit claims number fell to a five-year low and is a leading indicator for the labor market. Housing starts are strong though they are at a low level. The upswing is gaining momentum indicating some firming rather than a deceleration, Michael noted.

Expectation for economic growth is pretty subdued for 2013; the Bloomberg consensus is two percent, similar to what was witnessed last year, he noted. But the forward financial and monetary indicators are saying the growth forecast may be 100 basis points (one percent) too low despite the so-called fiscal drag, he added.

Asked if he has a two-pronged strategy to deal with the debt-ceiling debacle: one when we get through this debacle and one until we hit that debt-ceiling, Michael said that could be problematic as was experienced during the so-called fiscal cliff. A lot of investors chose to move to the sidelines till the issue was resolved while the market went through new highs during the so-called crisis, he noted. So it’s not probably wise to design a strategy around the debt-ceiling. If the outlook is upbeat, you’d rather buy on weakness rather than selling on strength.

Read More

New ETFs On The Block: Global X Junior MLP ETF (MLPJ)

Ulli Master Limited Partnerhips Contact

Global X Funds, the New York-based provider of exchange-traded funds famous for niche strategies, has launched the Global X Junior MLP ETF (MLPJ), a fund that targets the small-cap segment of the Master Limited Partnership (MLP) segment.

MLPJ will track the Solactive Junior MLP Index, a benchmark that measures the performance of US-listed energy and resource MLPs involved in everything from mining to production of natural resources to storage, transportation and marketing with market capitalizations of between $200 million and $2.5 billion.

MLPs are typically operators and owners of energy and resource infrastructure assets such as refineries, storage tanks and oil and gas pipelines and were first created in the mid 80s.

A growing number of MLPs are also involved in the exploration and production of energy assets. The partnerships trade like equities and have been strong performers lately because of the strong tax-efficient cash distributions they offer. These entities don’t attract federal income tax liability since they derive most of their revenues from steady fees like real estate rents, transportation and storage charges, cash dividends and interest incomes, etc.

Read More