ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter For Friday, March 1, 2013

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ETF/No Load Fund Tracker StatSheet

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THE LINK TO OUR CURRENT ETF/MUTUAL FUND STATSHEET IS:

https://theetfbully.com/2013/02/weekly-statsheet-for-the-etfno-load-fund-tracker-newsletter-updated-through-02282013/

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Market Commentary

Friday, March 1, 2013

US INDEXES RISE AS DATA OFFSETS SEQUESTER; EUROPE FALLS ON ECONOMIC DATA, CHINA

US indexes advanced Friday, wiping out earlier losses as upbeat manufacturing and consumer confidence data offset concern about government spending cuts.

The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index rose to 54.2, the highest reading since June 2011 and a surprise improvement from January’s 53.1.

The University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters consumer sentiment index rose to a final February reading of 77.6, the highest since November.

Separately, government data showed consumer spending in the US rose in January even as incomes dropped the most in 20 years, showing households are so far weathering the hike in payroll taxes. Ahead of the US open, data showed China’s manufacturing slowed for a second month while factory-output in the 17-member euro area shrank for the 19th straight month.

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Weekly StatSheet For The ETF/No Load Fund Tracker Newsletter – Updated Through 02/28/2013

Ulli ETF StatSheet Contact

ETF/Mutual Fund Data updated through Thursday, February 28, 2013

Table of Content082312

If you are not familiar with some of the terminology used, please see the Glossary of Terms.

 

1. DOMESTIC EQUITY MUTUAL FUNDS/ETFs: BUY — since 10/25/2011

TTI

The domestic TTI broke through its long-term trend line generating a Sell for this area effective 8/9/2011. Over the recent past, we’ve seen the TTI hovering slightly below and above this dividing line between bullish and bearish territory. The clear break to the upside occurred on 10/24/11 and, effective 10/25/11, a new Buy signal for domestic equities went into effect.

As of today, our Trend Tracking Index (TTI—green line in above chart) has bounced off its long term trend line (red) by +3.12% as part of the post election rebound.

To avoid a potential whip-saw, a Sell signal to move out of all domestic equity positions will be generated once we have clearly pierced the line to the downside. Be sure to tune into my blog for the latest updates.

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Indexes Retreat As Senate Rejects Sequestration Plan; Europe Rises On Draghi, Bernanke

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Thur pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US indexes did an about face and retreated in the final minutes of trading erasing earlier gains after a Senate vote kept $85 billion of automatic spending cuts in place starting at midnight, and data on growth and employment gave out mixed signals about the economy’s health.

Gains in the US equity averages fizzled out after the Senate rejected a pair of bipartisan proposals to replace $85 billion in automatic spending cuts starting tomorrow.

GDP growth reading also weighed on investors after a Commerce Department report showed the US economy grew by a negligible 0.1 percent in the final quarter of 2012 on an annual basis, up from the initially estimated 0.1 percent drop. The revised reading, however, was well short of the 0.5 percent growth economists were expecting. For all of 2012, the US economy grew at a 2.2 percent rate.

On an upbeat note, weekly jobless claims however, fell sharply by 22,000 to 344,000 last week, suggesting companies were looking beyond spending cuts by the government and were maintaining staffing.

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Stocks Rise On Housing Data And Bernanke Talk; European Markets Climb As Earnings Top Estimates

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Wed pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks surged Wednesday in a late rally, sending the Dow Industrials to a five-year high as investors welcomed more upbeat housing data and the Federal Reserve chief’s dovish testimony for the second day, reiterating his commitment to monetary stimulus to bolster growth. In other words, the spiked punchbowl will not be watered down as was previously feared.

Earlier, the National Association for Realtors reported contracts to buy existing homes jumped 4.5 percent in January, beating forecasts and setting a positive tone for the day’s trading.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the central bank has the necessary tools to scale back monetary stimulus and scotch a rise in inflation expectations in congressional testimony. Last week there have been apprehensions of the Fed scaling back its bond purchase program earlier than expected, but Bernanke effectively put to rest the speculations in the last couple of days.

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7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 2/26/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

The major market indexes took it on the chin last week as a combination of punches thrown by the sequester discussions and unexpected results from the Italian elections were simply too much for the bulls to handle, and the bears had their day in the sun by knocking the S&P 500 down 2.22% since the previous ETF Model Portfolio report.

The markets recovered some yesterday on low volume indicating a possible dead cat bounce. Europe is back in the limelight as politicians watched in horror as Italian voters pounded the unelected technocrat Mario Monti in favor of unknown comedian/blogger Beppe Grillo.

While no clear majority was reached, and prolonged political instability/stalemate may be in the cards, the message was for the anti-establishment group and against EU sponsored austerity. The people have spoken, which is not what the EU central planners had in mind. I’m sure there will be more fallout to come as the so often announced “solved” Europe crisis has suddenly become “unsolved” again.

In the meantime, here’s the latest update for our Model ETF Portfolios:

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Equities Rebound On Economic Data, Fed Speak; Europe Slides On Italian Deadlock

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

US stocks advanced Tuesday, recouping more than half of Monday’s biggest decline in the benchmark indices since November as Bernanke defended the Fed’s policy amid solid housing and consumer confidence data. The jury is still out whether that was just a low volume dead cat bounce, or the beginning of something more.

Economic activity in the US has continued to expand at a moderate and uneven pace, Bernanke said in his testimony while defending the Fed’s unprecedented asset purchase program. There is little risk of inflation or asset-price bubbles, the central banker told lawmakers in the first-day of his semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress and cautioned automatic spending cuts, set to begin Friday, will impose a significant burden on economy if politicians are unable to reach a deal to avert the cuts.

In economic news, data released by the Commerce Department showed new-home sales jumped 15.6 percent last month to an annual rate of 437,000, the highest mark since July 2008.

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