7 ETF Model Portfolios You Can Use – Updated through 4/23/2013

Ulli Model ETF Portfolios Contact

Volatility was an ever present companion during the past five trading days as the markets slipped but then managed to re-gain last week’s losses over the past two days with the S&P 500 adding 4 points since the last ETF Model Portfolio report.

Earnings were mixed in general so far but Wall Street’s focus was on bad is good and worse is even better as the indexes reinstated lost momentum and headed back up towards the 1,600 mile stone marker. If this does not make sense to you, you’re not the only one.

But that’s how it seems to work in this centrally planned and managed market environment until the day that it doesn’t. To me that simply means we always have to be on guard and prepared to exit should our trailing sell stops issue the signal. Commodities have been weak and our model holdings in DBC (#3 and #4) have been hovering around the sell stop point. Any more weakness tomorrow and we’ll be out.

In the meantime, here is the latest update for our Model ETF Portfolios, which you can use based on your risk tolerance:

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Markets Crash Briefly Over White House Bomb Fake

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Tue pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

Equities logged a third straight day of gains in late trading Tuesday. Midday, the indexes took steep nosedive (see chart above) following a false AP tweet that indicated that the White House had been the victim of an explosion and that President Obama had been injured.

AP confirmed its Twitter account was hacked. Almost immediately following the tweet, the Dow Jones Industrial Average took a quick 143-point plunge. Within six minutes, the Dow recovered its losses and was trading with triple-digit gains. The three-minute plunge triggered by the tweet briefly wiped out $136.5 billion of the S&P 500 index’s value, according to Reuters data.

In the end, the Dow finished up 1.05 percent while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also finished near session highs. The Nasdaq rose 1.10% after having been up as much as 1.3% intraday. The S&P 500 was up 1.04%. The Dow and S&P 500 are back in positive territory for April.

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Starting The Week On A Positive Note Despite Negative Data

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

Mon pic

[Chart courtesy of MarketWatch.com]

The market returned from the weekend with some modest gains, after the biggest weekly loss in five months for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. The S&P 500 increased 0.5 percent while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose a meager 0.1%. Energy and materials shares were among the best performers of the day on the S&P 500, bouncing back from last week’s big losses.

The market slumped early on as existing home sales fell 0.6% in March to a 4.92 million unit annual rate, according to the National Association of Realtors. Economists expected a 0.8% increase to a 5.02 million unit rate. Both single-family and condo/co-op sales edged down, but both continued on their upward trend.

The shortage in existing home inventory was likely the main reason for the pullback in activity. However, low inventory pushed up prices. Median prices have increased 11.8% from a year ago, the most since November 2005. Although most releases still indicate economic expansion, data of late has been modestly disappointing, raising the prospect of at least a minor soft patch. Although today’s report was not short of disappointment, it had some potential positives as sales have been above year-ago levels for 21 consecutive months. Also, the inventory issues could lead to a future ramp up of construction.

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ETFs/Mutual Funds On The Cutline – Updated Through 4/19/2013

Ulli ETFs on the Cutline Contact

Below are the latest ETF Cutline reports, which show how far above or below their respective long-term trend lines (39 week SMA) my currently tracked ETFs/MFs are positioned.

The first report covers the ETF Master List from Thursday’s StatSheet and includes 398 ETFs, of which currently 322 (last week 346) of them are hovering in bullish territory.

The second report includes only High Volume ETFs. To clarify, High Volume (HV) ETFs are defined as those with an average daily volume of $10 million or higher.

These ETFs are generated from my selected list of some 93 that I use in my advisor practice. It cuts out the “noise,” which simply means it eliminates those ETFs that I would never buy because of their volume limitations. 62 ETFs (last week 72) have managed to remain in bullish territory after the recent market volatility.

The third report covers Mutual Funds on the Cutline. There are currently 772 (last week 815) above the line and 87 below it out of the 859 that I follow.

Take a look:

1. ETF Master Cutline Report

2. ETF High Volume Cutline Report

3. MF Cutline Report

In case you are not familiar with some of the terminology used in the reports, please read the Glossary of Terms.

Last Week In Review: ETF News And Blog Posts To 4/21/2013

Ulli Market Review Contact

In case you missed it, here’s a summary of the ETF topics and market reviews I posted to my blog during the week ending on 4/21/2013.

Things started off very shaky as the major indexes took a steep dive on Monday, recovered on Tuesday only to be spanked again on Wednesday. Some stability returned to the markets as upward momentum during the past 2 trading days limited the damage. In the end, the S&P 500 gave back 2.14%, although it could have been a lot worse.

Disappointing earnings played a role along with the realization that we may have come too far too fast. Nevertheless, nothing would surprise me including a new attempt to break the S&P’s 1,600 milestone marker. After all, the Fed is still around and in business to provide the necessary ammunition via its open ended QE program to support the equity indexes.

Over past week, we covered the following:

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One Man’s Opinion: Has The Commodities Super-Cycle Ended?

Ulli Market Commentary Contact

92835431In global markets, there’s greater certainty about where the world economy is heading, but there’s no satisfaction in where it’s heading, feels John Lipsky, a professor at John Hopkins University and a former special adviser to the managing director of the International Monetary Fund.

Some economies, especially the Asian emerging economies, are doing well again, while some others are not. The IMF has called this a three-speed world economy and much of it is below where it ought to be, he added.

Asked about the immediate concerns that world finance chiefs, gathered for the G20 meeting in Washington now, should address, John said when the financial crisis had broken out in 2007, the leaders had said three things needed immediate attention. One, restore global economic growth; two, reform and repair the world financial system, and three, reform the international financial institutions – especially the International Monetary Fund.

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